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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Watford

S T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Chelsea

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

1,8

2,7

Conceded

2,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,3

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

31%

69%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 39%

46%

31%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,4

2,4

Conceded

1,8

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

13 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 0

3 Offside 5

18 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 17. · Chelsea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	13	9	3	1	+26	30
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+20	29
3	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+28	28
4	West Ham	13	7	2	4	+8	23
5	Arsenal	13	7	2	4	-2	23
6	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+0	20
7	Tottenham	12	6	1	5	-6	19
8	Man United	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Brighton	13	4	6	3	-2	18
10	Leicester	13	5	3	5	-3	18
11	Brentford	13	4	4	5	+0	16
12	Crystal Palace	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	Aston Villa	13	5	1	7	-3	16
14	Everton	13	4	3	6	-4	15
15	Leeds	14	3	6	5	-7	15
16	Southampton	13	3	5	5	-7	14
17	Watford	13	4	1	8	-6	13
18	Norwich	14	2	4	8	-20	10
19	Burnley	12	1	6	5	-6	9
20	Newcastle	14	0	7	7	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	1	1	+14	16
2	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
3	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
4	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
5	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	-2	12
6	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Everton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
11	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-1	9
13	Leeds	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Watford	6	2	1	3	-4	7
18	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
19	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Newcastle	7	0	4	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+15	13
3	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Leicester	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
12	Watford	7	2	0	5	-2	6
13	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-14	5
19	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.