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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Brighton

T S T T U

2–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,5

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 71%

71%

Points per game

2,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 93%

100%

86%

Both score Ø 93%

100%

86%

Average goals

4,7

3,3

Scored

2,7

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,32 xG 2,35

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 6. · Liverpool 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	8	6	2	0	+10	+4.0	20
2	Man City	7	6	0	1	+12	+9.7	18
3	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+9	+8.7	17
4	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+9	+5.3	16
5	Aston Villa	7	5	0	2	+7	+2.5	15
6	Brighton	7	5	0	2	+5	+2.5	15
7	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+3	-3.2	13
8	Newcastle	7	4	0	3	+11	+8.3	12
9	Crystal Palace	8	3	3	2	+0	-1.8	12
10	Man United	8	4	0	4	-3	+0.5	12
11	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+4	+6.9	11
12	Fulham	8	3	2	3	-5	-7.0	11
13	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-2	-3.0	9
14	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-1	+4.3	7
15	Everton	8	2	1	5	-3	+4.5	7
16	Wolves	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.0	7
17	Luton	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.2	4
18	Burnley	8	1	1	6	-13	-8.5	4
19	Bournemouth	8	0	3	5	-13	-9.8	3
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-16	-13.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+11	+4.3	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.5	9
3	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
4	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+6	+6.2	9
5	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.6	9
6	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.0	9
7	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
8	Arsenal	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.2	8
9	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.3	6
10	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
11	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
12	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.6	5
13	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.7	4
14	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
15	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
16	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.4	3
17	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.7	2
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-10	-8.7	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.0	11
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.5	9
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+5	+7.8	9
4	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
5	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.2	7
6	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.2	7
8	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.0	6
9	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.7	6
10	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
11	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.2	4
12	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
13	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.9	4
14	Everton	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.1	4
15	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.9	4
16	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+5	+2.1	3
17	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
18	Luton	4	1	0	3	-6	-6.2	3
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.