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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Man City

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

100%

40%

Points per game

3,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,33 xG 1,03

57% Possession 43%

7 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 7

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Nott'm Forest 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	+9.0	15
2	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+8	+2.5	13
3	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+8	+4.3	13
4	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+5	+5.3	13
5	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+8	+1.7	12
6	West Ham	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.4	10
7	Aston Villa	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.9	9
8	Nott'm Forest	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.8	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.9	7
10	Fulham	5	2	1	2	-5	-8.3	7
11	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+2	+4.5	6
12	Newcastle	5	2	0	3	+1	+2.8	6
13	Man United	5	2	0	3	-4	-0.3	6
14	Chelsea	5	1	2	2	+0	+4.9	5
15	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	-4	-4.5	3
16	Wolves	5	1	0	4	-6	-3.0	3
17	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-4	-8.1	1
18	Everton	5	0	1	4	-7	-0.2	1
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.8	1
20	Luton	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.6	7
2	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.4	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.6	6
4	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.6	6
5	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.7	6
6	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
7	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.7	6
9	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.4	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
11	Brentford	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.4	3
13	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
14	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-3.6	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
16	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-2	-5.7	1
17	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
18	Everton	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+7.4	9
2	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+1.4	7
3	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
5	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.8	6
6	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
7	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.8	4
8	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-3	-4.7	4
9	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
11	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.1	3
12	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-5	-1.5	3
13	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.6	1
15	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
16	Everton	2	0	1	1	-4	-1.0	1
17	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
18	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
19	Man United	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
20	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.