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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Almeria

T U S T U

1–2

Full-time

Villarreal

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 18%

32%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

Both score Ø 71%

61%

81%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,71 xG 1,64

57% Possession 43%

24 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 20. · Villarreal 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	31	24	6	1	+47	+31.1	78
2	Barcelona	31	21	7	3	+28	+35.2	70
3	Girona	32	21	5	6	+27	+12.9	68
4	Ath Madrid	31	19	4	8	+23	+19.1	61
5	Ath Bilbao	32	16	10	6	+22	+14.3	58
6	Sociedad	32	13	12	7	+12	+7.2	51
7	Betis	32	12	12	8	+2	-6.1	48
8	Valencia	32	13	8	11	+1	-5.7	47
9	Getafe	32	9	13	10	-6	-7.8	40
10	Villarreal	31	10	9	12	-5	-1.7	39
11	Osasuna	32	11	6	15	-9	-6.2	39
12	Las Palmas	32	10	7	15	-9	-22.4	37
13	Sevilla	31	8	10	13	-5	-9.4	34
14	Vallecano	32	7	13	12	-12	-4.0	34
15	Alaves	31	8	8	15	-12	-0.7	32
16	Celta	32	7	10	15	-10	-4.4	31
17	Mallorca	31	6	13	12	-11	-6.5	31
18	Cadiz	32	4	13	15	-23	-14.6	25
19	Granada	32	3	9	20	-28	-17.4	18
20	Almeria	31	1	11	19	-32	-13.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	16	14	1	1	+20	+17.6	43
2	Real Madrid	15	13	2	0	+30	+22.1	41
3	Girona	16	13	2	1	+25	+11.6	41
4	Ath Bilbao	17	11	5	1	+22	+15.6	38
5	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+15	+19.5	37
6	Betis	16	8	6	2	+9	+6.6	30
7	Valencia	16	8	5	3	+9	+3.6	29
8	Getafe	16	8	5	3	+4	-0.4	29
9	Sociedad	15	6	6	3	+6	+3.9	24
10	Las Palmas	16	6	4	6	+2	-6.2	22
11	Mallorca	16	5	7	4	+1	-0.7	22
12	Alaves	15	6	3	6	-2	+5.0	21
13	Osasuna	16	6	3	7	-5	+0.9	21
14	Villarreal	16	5	4	7	+0	+5.2	19
15	Cadiz	16	4	7	5	-4	+4.1	19
16	Sevilla	15	4	5	6	-2	-2.7	17
17	Celta	16	4	5	7	-4	+7.8	17
18	Vallecano	16	3	8	5	-7	-2.3	17
19	Granada	16	3	6	7	-6	-2.3	15
20	Almeria	15	0	8	7	-14	-0.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+17	+9.1	37
2	Barcelona	15	9	6	0	+13	+15.7	33
3	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+6	+3.3	27
4	Girona	16	8	3	5	+2	+1.3	27
5	Ath Bilbao	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.3	20
6	Villarreal	15	5	5	5	-5	-6.9	20
7	Ath Madrid	15	5	3	7	+3	+1.5	18
8	Osasuna	16	5	3	8	-4	-7.2	18
9	Betis	16	4	6	6	-7	-12.8	18
10	Valencia	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.2	18
11	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.6	17
12	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-5	-1.8	17
13	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-11	-16.2	15
14	Celta	16	3	5	8	-6	-12.3	14
15	Getafe	16	1	8	7	-10	-7.4	11
16	Alaves	16	2	5	9	-10	-5.7	11
17	Mallorca	15	1	6	8	-12	-5.8	9
18	Almeria	16	1	3	12	-18	-12.4	6
19	Cadiz	16	0	6	10	-19	-18.7	6
20	Granada	16	0	3	13	-22	-15.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.