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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso

Villarreal

U T S T T

2–1

Full-time

Almeria

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,90 xG 1,51

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 16. · Almeria 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	1	0	+9	+7.3	13
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.7	12
3	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.0	10
4	Girona	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.8	10
5	Valencia	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.4	9
6	Vallecano	5	3	0	2	-2	+1.0	9
7	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.9	7
8	Cadiz	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
9	Getafe	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.1	7
10	Betis	5	2	1	2	-5	-3.9	7
11	Sociedad	4	1	3	0	+2	+1.1	6
12	Osasuna	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.3	6
13	Alaves	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.1	6
14	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.5	5
15	Celta	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.6	4
16	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.5	3
17	Granada	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.2	3
18	Las Palmas	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.2	1
20	Sevilla	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
2	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.9	6
4	Girona	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.7	6
5	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
6	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.6	6
7	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
8	Sociedad	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
9	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
10	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
11	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
12	Granada	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
13	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-5	-1.0	3
14	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
15	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
16	Villarreal	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
17	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
18	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0
19	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.5	0
20	Almeria	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.4	7
3	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
4	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
5	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
6	Ath Bilbao	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.5	4
7	Celta	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
8	Girona	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
9	Mallorca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
10	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
12	Betis	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.9	3
13	Almeria	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
14	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
15	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
16	Las Palmas	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.0	0
17	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
18	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
19	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
20	Cadiz	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.