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Ligue 1
Referee: M Bollengier
Le Havre
S T T U T
0–1
Full-time
Metz
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Havre Metz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,7
3,8
Scored
0,5
1,8
Conceded
1,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 23%
21%
24%
Points per game
1,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
48%
52%
Both score Ø 49%
45%
52%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
0,9
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,68 xG 1,34
64% Possession 36%
16 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 2
2 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Le Havre 15. · Metz 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 28 18 9 1 +41 +23.8 63
2 Brest 29 15 8 6 +17 +9.6 53
3 Monaco 28 15 7 6 +15 +8.3 52
4 Lille 28 13 10 5 +17 +14.4 49
5 Nice 29 13 8 8 +9 +13.2 47
6 Lens 30 13 7 10 +7 +2.5 46
7 Rennes 30 11 9 10 +8 +8.8 42
8 Lyon 29 12 5 12 -7 -3.9 41
9 Reims 29 11 7 11 -3 +2.2 40
10 Marseille 28 10 9 9 +8 +16.5 39
11 Toulouse 29 9 9 11 -3 -6.9 36
12 Strasbourg 29 9 9 11 -7 -1.7 36
13 Montpellier 29 8 10 11 -5 +2.2 34
14 Nantes 30 9 4 17 -20 -15.8 31
15 Le Havre 29 6 10 13 -10 -10.8 28
16 Metz 29 7 5 17 -19 -19.8 26
17 Lorient 29 6 8 15 -20 -17.0 26
18 Clermont 30 4 10 16 -28 -25.6 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Le Havre Metz
16′
🟨 Kévin N'Doram
Arouna Sangante 🟨
21′
Half-time 0–1
46′
G. Mikautadze 0–1
M. Bayo 🔁
↦ S. Ngoura
61′
A. Joujou 🔁
↦ É. Youté
61′
L. Négo 🔁
↦ J. Casimir
61′
S. Grandsir 🔁
↦ D. Kuzyaev
69′
Loic Négo 🟨
72′
78′
🟨 Alexandre Oukidja
R. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ Y. Kechta
81′
81′
🔁 A. Lô
↦ P. Diallo
84′
🟨 Danley Jean Jacques
93′
🔁 C. Sabaly
↦ K. Van Den Kerkhof
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Le Havre

4-2-3-1
30 A. Desmas G
93 A. Sangante D
6 É. Youté D
22 Y. Salmier D
17 O. El Hajjam D
5 O. Targhalline M
8 Y. Kechta M
11 E. Sabbi M
14 D. Kuzyaev M
23 J. Casimir M
13 S. Ngoura F
Bench (9)
9 M. Bayo
21 A. Joujou
7 L. Négo
29 S. Grandsir
19 R. Ndiaye
25 A. Confais
1 M. Gorgelin
4 G. Lloris
26 S. Ebonog

Coach: L. Elsner

Metz

4-5-1
16 A. Oukidja G
2 M. Colin D
8 I. Traoré D
38 S. Sané D
3 M. Udol D
22 K. Van Den Kerkhof M
27 D. Jean Jacques M
6 K. N'Doram M
25 A. Atta M
7 P. Diallo M
10 G. Mikautadze F
Bench (9)
15 A. Lô
14 C. Sabaly
1 G. Dietsch
29 C. Hérelle
18 L. Camara
39 K. Kouao
11 D. Lamkel Zé
5 Fali Candé
36 A. Jallow

Coach: L. Bölöni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,19
U
3,19
B ✓
3,58
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,35
U2,5 ✓
1,61
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Bollengier · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.