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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Chaves

U T T T S

2–2

Full-time

Estoril

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 23%

17%

28%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

59%

62%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

59%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,26 xG 0,78

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Chaves 17. · Estoril 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	29	25	2	2	+57	+36.6	77
2	Benfica	29	22	4	3	+42	+34.6	70
3	Sp Braga	30	19	5	6	+22	+20.9	62
4	Porto	29	18	5	6	+30	+27.5	59
5	Guimaraes	29	17	6	6	+16	+7.8	57
6	Arouca	30	13	5	12	+11	+1.0	44
7	Moreirense	30	12	7	11	-4	-1.4	43
8	Famalicao	29	8	11	10	-5	-10.1	35
9	Casa Pia	29	8	8	13	-12	-9.8	32
10	Farense	29	8	7	14	-3	-8.6	31
11	Rio Ave	30	5	16	9	-6	+1.4	31
12	Gil Vicente	30	8	7	15	-11	-10.0	31
13	Boavista	30	7	9	14	-21	-17.5	30
14	Estoril	29	8	5	16	-7	-11.2	29
15	Estrela	30	6	11	13	-14	-7.6	29
16	Portimonense	29	7	6	16	-30	-21.5	27
17	Chaves	29	5	7	17	-32	-19.5	22
18	Vizela	30	4	9	17	-33	-12.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	14	0	0	+37	+23.7	42
2	Benfica	15	13	2	0	+34	+26.3	41
3	Porto	15	10	3	2	+21	+22.8	33
4	Guimaraes	15	10	2	3	+13	+11.5	32
5	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+13	+19.9	30
6	Arouca	15	7	2	6	+2	+0.3	23
7	Estoril	15	7	1	7	+7	+0.3	22
8	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	+4	+7.1	22
9	Moreirense	15	6	4	5	+0	+0.7	22
10	Gil Vicente	15	5	6	4	+4	-4.5	21
11	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-1	-2.3	20
12	Farense	14	5	4	5	+4	+1.5	19
13	Estrela	15	5	3	7	-3	-1.8	18
14	Boavista	15	4	6	5	-9	-3.4	18
15	Portimonense	15	3	5	7	-11	-9.5	14
16	Chaves	14	3	3	8	-12	-4.4	12
17	Casa Pia	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.0	11
18	Vizela	15	2	4	9	-16	-1.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	11	2	2	+20	+12.9	35
2	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+9	+1.0	32
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+8	+8.4	29
4	Porto	14	8	2	4	+9	+4.6	26
5	Guimaraes	14	7	4	3	+3	-3.7	25
6	Arouca	15	6	3	6	+9	+0.7	21
7	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	-4	-6.8	21
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-4	-2.0	21
9	Famalicao	15	3	6	6	-4	-7.9	15
10	Portimonense	14	4	1	9	-19	-12.0	13
11	Farense	15	3	3	9	-7	-10.1	12
12	Boavista	15	3	3	9	-12	-14.1	12
13	Estrela	15	1	8	6	-11	-5.8	11
14	Vizela	15	2	5	8	-17	-11.7	11
15	Gil Vicente	15	3	1	11	-15	-5.4	10
16	Chaves	15	2	4	9	-20	-15.1	10
17	Rio Ave	15	0	9	6	-10	-5.7	9
18	Estoril	14	1	4	9	-14	-11.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.