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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Lille

U S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Strasbourg

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 39%

46%

31%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

43%

55%

Both score Ø 56%

50%

62%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,73 xG 1,19

53% Possession 47%

6 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 4. · Strasbourg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	18	9	1	+41	+23.8	63
2	Brest	29	15	8	6	+17	+9.6	53
3	Monaco	28	15	7	6	+15	+8.3	52
4	Lille	28	13	10	5	+17	+14.4	49
5	Nice	29	13	8	8	+9	+13.2	47
6	Lens	30	13	7	10	+7	+2.5	46
7	Rennes	30	11	9	10	+8	+8.8	42
8	Lyon	29	12	5	12	-7	-3.9	41
9	Reims	29	11	7	11	-3	+2.2	40
10	Marseille	28	10	9	9	+8	+16.5	39
11	Toulouse	29	9	9	11	-3	-6.9	36
12	Strasbourg	29	9	9	11	-7	-1.7	36
13	Montpellier	29	8	10	11	-5	+2.2	34
14	Nantes	30	9	4	17	-20	-15.8	31
15	Le Havre	29	6	10	13	-10	-10.8	28
16	Metz	29	7	5	17	-19	-19.8	26
17	Lorient	29	6	8	15	-20	-17.0	26
18	Clermont	30	4	10	16	-28	-25.6	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	14	10	3	1	+20	+18.2	33
2	Paris SG	14	8	5	1	+19	+16.7	29
3	Marseille	14	8	5	1	+15	+15.0	29
4	Brest	14	8	5	1	+13	+13.3	29
5	Nice	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.9	28
6	Lens	15	8	3	4	+7	+6.1	27
7	Rennes	15	7	3	5	+9	+11.8	24
8	Monaco	14	7	3	4	+8	+8.7	24
9	Strasbourg	15	6	3	6	+0	+3.0	21
10	Reims	14	6	3	5	+0	+4.5	21
11	Lyon	15	5	4	6	-6	+1.4	19
12	Montpellier	15	3	8	4	-1	+8.2	17
13	Le Havre	14	5	2	7	-1	+2.8	17
14	Toulouse	14	3	6	5	+0	+4.6	15
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.2	13
16	Metz	14	3	3	8	-6	-2.6	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-15	-8.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+22	+7.1	34
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+7	-0.4	28
3	Brest	15	7	3	5	+4	-3.7	24
4	Lyon	14	7	1	6	-1	-5.2	22
5	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	-3	-11.5	21
6	Lens	15	5	4	6	+0	-3.6	19
7	Nice	14	5	4	5	-1	+3.3	19
8	Reims	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
9	Nantes	14	6	1	7	-8	-8.1	19
10	Rennes	15	4	6	5	-1	-3.0	18
11	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-4	-6.1	17
12	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
13	Strasbourg	14	3	6	5	-7	-4.7	15
14	Metz	15	4	2	9	-13	-17.2	14
15	Lorient	15	3	4	8	-15	-11.8	13
16	Le Havre	15	1	8	6	-9	-13.7	11
17	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-13	-17.1	11
18	Marseille	14	2	4	8	-7	+1.5	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.