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Super League

Referee: S Schärer

Luzern

U U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Basel

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 36%

38%

34%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

56%

Both score Ø 58%

59%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luzern 7. · Basel 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	32	18	8	6	+34	+2.5	62
2	Lugano	33	18	5	10	+17	+12.5	59
3	Servette	33	16	9	8	+15	+26.5	57
4	Winterthur	32	13	10	9	+0	-5.4	49
5	Zurich	32	12	12	8	+10	+2.4	48
6	St. Gallen	32	13	8	11	+8	+14.3	47
7	Luzern	32	12	7	13	-5	+1.6	43
8	Lausanne	33	10	10	13	-5	-0.2	40
9	Yverdon	33	11	7	15	-21	-17.8	40
10	Basel	32	11	6	15	-10	-4.3	39
11	Grasshoppers	33	8	6	19	-10	-11.4	30
12	Lausanne Ouchy	33	5	8	20	-33	-20.7	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	16	13	2	1	+33	+6.4	41
2	St. Gallen	17	11	3	3	+16	+10.3	36
3	Servette	17	10	4	3	+14	+18.3	34
4	Yverdon	17	10	4	3	+6	-3.8	34
5	Winterthur	16	9	4	3	+5	+0.8	31
6	Lugano	16	9	3	4	+10	+9.7	30
7	Luzern	16	9	3	4	+6	+2.9	30
8	Zurich	15	7	7	1	+9	+1.7	28
9	Lausanne	16	7	5	4	+7	+6.1	26
10	Basel	16	6	4	6	+1	-1.5	22
11	Grasshoppers	16	6	3	7	+5	-3.5	21
12	Lausanne Ouchy	17	2	6	9	-19	-8.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	17	9	2	6	+7	+2.8	29
2	Servette	16	6	5	5	+1	+8.2	23
3	Young Boys	16	5	6	5	+1	-3.9	21
4	Zurich	17	5	5	7	+1	+0.7	20
5	Winterthur	16	4	6	6	-5	-6.3	18
6	Basel	16	5	2	9	-11	-2.8	17
7	Lausanne	17	3	5	9	-12	-6.3	14
8	Luzern	16	3	4	9	-11	-1.4	13
9	St. Gallen	15	2	5	8	-8	+4.0	11
10	Lausanne Ouchy	16	3	2	11	-14	-12.8	11
11	Grasshoppers	17	2	3	12	-15	-8.0	9
12	Yverdon	16	1	3	12	-27	-14.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.