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Europa League
Referee: S Schärer
AEK
S U T S S
0–1
Full-time
Brighton
U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,58 xG 1,26
56% Possession 44%
19 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 4
4 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Sep -23 Brighton – AEK 2–3

Match report

AEK Brighton
12′
🟨 Joël Veltman
Mijat Gaćinović 🟨
27′
Half-time 0–0
54′
ℹ️ João Pedro
VAR: Penalty confirmed
55′
⚽ João Pedro 0–1
Steven Zuber 🟨
63′
Mijat Gaćinović 🟨
65′
Mijat Gaćinović 🟥
65′
69′
🔁 Mahmoud Dahoud
↦ K. Mitoma
N. Eliasson 🔁
↦ N. Amrabat
72′
E. Ponce 🔁
↦ S. Zuber
72′
S. Araújo 🔁
↦ P. Mantalos
72′
77′
🔁 J. Milner
↦ João Pedro
R. Pizarro 🔁
↦ O. Pineda
82′
87′
🔁 J. Duffus
↦ E. Ferguson
88′
🔁 C. Baleba
↦ B. Gilmour
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

AEK

4-1-4-1
1 C. Stanković G
12 L. Rota D
21 D. Vida D
2 H. Moukoudi D
28 E. Hajisafi D
4 D. Szymański M
5 N. Amrabat M
20 P. Mantalos M
13 O. Pineda M
8 M. Gaćinović M
10 S. Zuber F
Bench (9)
19 N. Eliasson
14 E. Ponce
11 S. Araújo
70 R. Pizarro
24 G. Mitoglou
3 M. Mohammadi
29 D. Sidibé
39 P. Ginis
30 G. Athanasiadis

Coach: M. Almeyda

Brighton

4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen G
34 J. Veltman D
5 L. Dunk D
3 Igor Julio D
41 J. Hinshelwood D
13 P. Groß M
11 B. Gilmour M
24 S. Adingra M
28 E. Ferguson M
22 K. Mitoma M
9 João Pedro F
Bench (11)
8 Mahmoud Dahoud
6 J. Milner
56 J. Duffus
20 C. Baleba
52 L. Kavanagh
48 S. Chouchane
38 T. McGill
45 J. Hinchy
50 B. Jackson
23 J. Steele
40 F. Buonanotte

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Schärer · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.