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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Nijmegen

U U S U U

1–2

Full-time

Ajax

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,7

4,2

Scored

2,3

2,7

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 26%

18%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

73%

83%

Both score Ø 70%

73%

67%

Average goals

3,8

4,2

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,67 xG 3,41

44% Possession 56%

7 Shots 22

3 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 16. · Ajax 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	14	0	0	+44	+30.5	42
2	Feyenoord	14	10	2	2	+28	+27.2	32
3	AZ Alkmaar	12	9	2	1	+23	+12.5	29
4	Twente	13	8	3	2	+11	+7.8	27
5	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+7	-6.8	21
6	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	3	5	+1	-1.5	21
7	Heerenveen	14	6	1	7	-3	+0.8	19
8	Zwolle	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.6	17
9	Excelsior	14	3	7	4	-3	-5.0	16
10	For Sittard	14	4	4	6	-9	-2.5	16
11	Ajax	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.4	15
12	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-13	-8.2	15
13	Waalwijk	13	4	1	8	-11	-3.9	13
14	Almere City	14	3	4	7	-18	-8.2	13
15	Utrecht	13	3	3	7	-11	-11.3	12
16	Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	-2	-8.1	11
17	Volendam	14	2	2	10	-21	-8.4	8
18	Vitesse	14	2	2	10	-22	-10.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+20	+16.2	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+16	+11.6	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+16	+11.3	16
4	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
5	Twente	7	5	1	1	+4	+2.8	16
6	For Sittard	7	4	2	1	+5	+4.5	14
7	Heerenveen	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.4	13
8	Ajax	6	4	0	2	+8	+4.1	12
9	Heracles	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.5	10
10	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.5	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-4	+1.2	7
14	Waalwijk	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.4	7
15	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
16	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	-7	-5.7	5
17	Almere City	7	1	2	4	-12	-3.9	5
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+24	+14.3	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+7	+1.1	13
4	Sparta Rotterdam	7	4	1	2	+4	-1.1	13
5	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
6	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.9	10
7	Excelsior	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.7	9
8	Almere City	7	2	2	3	-6	-4.3	8
9	Utrecht	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.6	7
10	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-5	-0.4	6
11	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.6	6
12	Vitesse	8	2	0	6	-14	-8.8	6
13	Heracles	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.7	5
14	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
15	Nijmegen	5	0	3	2	-5	-9.5	3
16	Ajax	6	0	3	3	-6	-4.4	3
17	For Sittard	7	0	2	5	-14	-7.0	2
18	Volendam	7	0	1	6	-13	-9.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.