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Europa League
Referee: N Dabanović
Ajax
T T T S S
0–2
Full-time
Brighton
U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
4,3
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/3 matches
Win Ø 27%
20%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
40%
67%
Both score Ø 64%
60%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
1,6
2,0
Conceded
1,6
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,67 xG 0,99
54% Possession 46%
8 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Oct -23 Brighton – Ajax 2–0

Match report

Ajax Brighton
8′
🔁 B. Gilmour
↦ J. Milner
15′
⚽ Ansu Fati 0–1
S. Adingra
33′
🟨 João Pedro
Half-time 0–1
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ K. Taylor
46′
46′
🔁 Igor Julio
↦ L. Dunk
53′
⚽ S. Adingra 0–2
Ansu Fati
Carlos Forbs 🔁
↦ K. Hlynsson
57′
B. Sosa 🔁
↦ A. Gaaei
57′
65′
🔁 P. Estupiñán
↦ Mahmoud Dahoud
65′
🔁 E. Ferguson
↦ Ansu Fati
69′
🟨 Jan Paul van Hecke
B. Tahirović 🔁
↦ S. Vos
73′
77′
🔁 C. Baleba
↦ P. Estupiñán
G. Mikautadze 🔁
↦ D. Rensch
78′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Ajax

3-2-4-1
40 D. Ramaj G
3 A. Gaaei D
37 J. Šutalo D
4 J. Hato D
2 D. Rensch M
24 S. Vos M
23 S. Berghuis F
38 K. Hlynsson M
8 K. Taylor M
7 S. Bergwijn F
9 B. Brobbey F
Bench (12)
10 C. Akpom
11 Carlos Forbs
25 B. Sosa
33 B. Tahirović
19 G. Mikautadze
51 C. Setford
30 G. Ávila
39 M. Godts
17 A. Salah-Eddine
42 A. Martha
22 R. Pasveer
18 J. Medić

Coach: J. van 't Schip

Brighton

4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen G
34 J. Veltman D
29 J. van Hecke D
5 L. Dunk D
6 J. Milner D
13 P. Groß M
8 Mahmoud Dahoud M
24 S. Adingra M
31 Ansu Fati M
22 K. Mitoma M
9 João Pedro F
Bench (12)
11 B. Gilmour
3 Igor Julio
30 P. Estupiñán
28 E. Ferguson
20 C. Baleba
14 A. Lallana
56 J. Duffus
40 F. Buonanotte
41 J. Hinshelwood
23 J. Steele
38 T. McGill
4 A. Webster

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Dabanović · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.