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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Toulouse

T S U T U

1–1

Full-time

Lorient

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 15%

15%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

46%

62%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,02 xG 0,80

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 15. · Lorient 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	3	1	+25	+14.5	33
2	Nice	14	8	5	1	+9	+7.7	29
3	Monaco	13	7	3	3	+8	+4.5	24
4	Lille	13	6	5	2	+6	+5.8	23
5	Reims	14	7	2	5	+1	+2.1	23
6	Lens	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.3	22
7	Brest	12	5	3	4	+0	+1.1	18
8	Nantes	14	5	3	6	-5	-5.1	18
9	Le Havre	14	3	7	4	-3	-6.2	16
10	Metz	13	4	4	5	-5	-9.1	16
11	Rennes	13	3	6	4	+2	+3.7	15
12	Montpellier	13	3	5	5	-1	+5.1	14
13	Marseille	12	3	5	4	-1	+8.3	14
14	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-7	-3.6	13
15	Toulouse	13	2	6	5	-4	-10.3	12
16	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-7	-8.9	11
17	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-9	-8.1	10
18	Lyon	13	1	4	8	-13	-4.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	1	1	+14	+6.5	16
2	Monaco	6	5	0	1	+9	+2.7	15
3	Nice	7	4	3	0	+6	+4.6	15
4	Lens	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.8	14
5	Lille	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.2	13
6	Rennes	8	3	3	2	+5	+5.5	12
7	Nantes	8	3	3	2	+3	-0.8	12
8	Reims	7	4	0	3	+0	+3.7	12
9	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.7	11
10	Strasbourg	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.8	9
11	Lorient	7	2	3	2	+0	-4.4	9
12	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
13	Le Havre	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.0	8
14	Montpellier	7	1	4	2	-1	+4.6	7
15	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
16	Metz	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.8	6
17	Clermont	7	1	1	5	-7	-3.9	4
18	Lyon	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.0	17
2	Nice	7	4	2	1	+3	+3.1	14
3	Reims	7	3	2	2	+1	-1.6	11
4	Lille	7	2	4	1	+1	-0.4	10
5	Brest	7	3	1	3	-1	-3.9	10
6	Metz	7	3	1	3	-5	-7.3	10
7	Monaco	7	2	3	2	-1	+1.7	9
8	Lens	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.4	8
9	Le Havre	7	1	5	1	-2	-9.2	8
10	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.5	7
11	Clermont	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.2	6
12	Toulouse	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.9	6
13	Nantes	6	2	0	4	-8	-4.3	6
14	Lyon	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.4	4
15	Strasbourg	6	1	1	4	-8	-5.4	4
16	Rennes	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.8	3
17	Marseille	7	0	3	4	-7	+2.7	3
18	Lorient	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.