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Serie A

Referee: P Giacomelli

Fiorentina

U U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Cagliari

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 19%

19%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 14. · Cagliari 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	17	12	4	1	+18	40
2	Inter	17	11	4	2	+20	37
3	Roma	17	10	4	3	+11	34
4	Atalanta	16	9	4	3	+18	31
5	Napoli	16	10	1	5	+18	31
6	Juventus	15	8	6	1	+17	30
7	Sassuolo	16	8	5	3	+6	29
8	Lazio	17	8	4	5	+2	28
9	Verona	17	7	6	4	+6	27
10	Benevento	17	6	3	8	-10	21
11	Sampdoria	16	6	2	8	-1	20
12	Bologna	17	4	5	8	-8	17
13	Udinese	16	4	4	8	-7	16
14	Fiorentina	16	3	6	7	-6	15
15	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-10	14
16	Spezia	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Genoa	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Torino	17	2	6	9	-9	12
19	Parma	17	2	6	9	-20	12
20	Crotone	17	2	3	12	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	9	6	3	0	+12	21
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Milan	9	5	3	1	+8	18
4	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+12	16
5	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	Verona	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Napoli	8	4	1	3	+9	13
8	Sassuolo	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Bologna	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Lazio	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	+2	10
12	Fiorentina	8	2	4	2	+0	10
13	Genoa	9	2	2	5	-3	8
14	Cagliari	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Benevento	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	Udinese	8	2	1	5	-5	7
17	Crotone	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Parma	9	1	4	4	-10	7
19	Torino	8	0	4	4	-5	4
20	Spezia	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	8	7	1	0	+10	22
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+10	18
3	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+9	18
4	Sassuolo	8	5	2	1	+5	17
5	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Juventus	8	4	4	0	+11	16
7	Atalanta	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Verona	8	3	4	1	+3	13
9	Roma	8	4	1	3	-1	13
10	Benevento	8	4	1	3	-1	13
11	Spezia	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-3	10
13	Udinese	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Torino	9	2	2	5	-4	8
15	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Bologna	9	1	3	5	-7	6
17	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-9	6
18	Fiorentina	8	1	2	5	-6	5
19	Parma	8	1	2	5	-10	5
20	Crotone	9	0	2	7	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.