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Serie A

Referee: A Di Martino

Napoli

S U S S S

4–3

Full-time

Crotone

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,5

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,5

This season — Serie A · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 39%

63%

14%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

59%

75%

Both score Ø 56%

48%

64%

Average goals

3,2

3,6

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,1

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

63% Possession 37%

28 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 5. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Milan	29	18	6	5	+20	60
3	Atalanta	28	16	7	5	+31	55
4	Juventus	27	16	7	4	+31	55
5	Napoli	27	17	2	8	+29	53
6	Roma	28	15	5	8	+9	50
7	Lazio	27	15	4	8	+6	49
8	Sassuolo	27	10	9	8	+1	39
9	Verona	28	10	8	10	+2	38
10	Sampdoria	29	10	6	13	-4	36
11	Bologna	28	9	7	12	-5	34
12	Udinese	28	8	9	11	-6	33
13	Genoa	28	7	10	11	-10	31
14	Fiorentina	28	7	8	13	-10	29
15	Spezia	28	7	8	13	-15	29
16	Benevento	28	7	8	13	-24	29
17	Torino	27	4	11	12	-11	23
18	Cagliari	28	5	7	16	-17	22
19	Parma	28	3	10	15	-28	19
20	Crotone	28	4	3	21	-38	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	1	1	+22	34
2	Roma	15	10	3	2	+16	33
3	Juventus	14	10	2	2	+19	32
4	Napoli	13	9	1	3	+22	28
5	Atalanta	14	8	3	3	+18	27
6	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+5	26
7	Milan	15	6	5	4	+5	23
8	Bologna	13	6	3	4	+3	21
9	Verona	14	6	3	5	+2	21
10	Sampdoria	14	6	2	6	+1	20
11	Fiorentina	15	5	5	5	+1	20
12	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	+1	18
13	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Genoa	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Spezia	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	Crotone	14	4	1	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	14	3	3	8	-9	12
18	Benevento	14	2	5	7	-15	11
19	Parma	15	2	5	8	-15	11
20	Torino	13	1	7	5	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	14	12	1	1	+15	37
2	Inter	14	9	4	1	+17	31
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+13	28
4	Napoli	14	8	1	5	+7	25
5	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+12	23
6	Lazio	14	7	2	5	+1	23
7	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Benevento	14	5	3	6	-9	18
9	Verona	14	4	5	5	+0	17
10	Roma	13	5	2	6	-7	17
11	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-5	16
12	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-5	15
13	Spezia	14	4	3	7	-9	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Torino	14	3	4	7	-6	13
16	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-8	13
17	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Fiorentina	13	2	3	8	-11	9
19	Parma	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Crotone	14	0	2	12	-29	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.