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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Crotone

U T T T T

1–2

Full-time

Napoli

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,9

Conceded

2,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Crotone 20. · Napoli 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	0	2	+11	21
2	Milan	9	6	1	2	+5	19
3	Roma	8	5	1	2	+9	16
4	Torino	8	4	2	2	+8	14
5	Napoli	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	Chievo	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Cagliari	8	4	1	3	-1	13
9	Genoa	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Sassuolo	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	Inter	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Sampdoria	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Bologna	8	3	2	3	-3	11
14	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-5	10
16	Fiorentina	7	2	3	2	+0	9
17	Pescara	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Palermo	8	1	3	4	-7	6
19	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Crotone	8	0	1	7	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Milan	5	4	0	1	+4	12
4	Torino	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	Cagliari	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+4	9
7	Bologna	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Sassuolo	4	3	0	1	+1	9
9	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+2	8
10	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	7
11	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Udinese	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Genoa	4	1	3	0	+2	6
15	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+0	6
16	Inter	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Pescara	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
19	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Palermo	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	3	0	2	+3	9
2	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	7
3	Milan	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Palermo	4	1	3	0	+1	6
5	Inter	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Genoa	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Chievo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Napoli	4	1	2	1	+2	5
9	Torino	4	1	1	2	+1	4
10	Roma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Pescara	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Udinese	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	Empoli	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Bologna	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Crotone	5	0	0	5	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.