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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Fiorentina

U U T S U

0–3

Full-time

Lazio

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 47%

50%

43%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

73%

78%

Both score Ø 62%

59%

65%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,9

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 7. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	23	16	5	2	+35	53
2	Milan	24	16	4	4	+23	52
3	Napoli	23	15	4	4	+27	49
4	Atalanta	22	12	7	3	+18	43
5	Juventus	23	12	6	5	+13	42
6	Roma	24	12	3	9	+10	39
7	Fiorentina	22	11	3	8	+11	36
8	Lazio	23	10	6	7	+7	36
9	Verona	23	9	6	8	+5	33
10	Torino	22	9	5	8	+9	32
11	Sassuolo	23	7	8	8	+1	29
12	Empoli	23	8	5	10	-10	29
13	Bologna	22	8	3	11	-8	27
14	Spezia	23	7	4	12	-18	25
15	Udinese	21	4	9	8	-8	21
16	Sampdoria	23	5	5	13	-12	20
17	Venezia	22	4	6	12	-20	18
18	Cagliari	23	3	8	12	-22	17
19	Genoa	24	1	11	12	-25	14
20	Salernitana	21	3	2	16	-36	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	2	1	+20	29
2	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+14	25
3	Torino	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	Roma	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Milan	12	7	2	3	+9	23
6	Fiorentina	10	7	1	2	+17	22
7	Lazio	11	6	4	1	+12	22
8	Verona	12	6	2	4	+6	20
9	Juventus	11	6	2	3	+6	20
10	Bologna	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Atalanta	10	3	4	3	+3	13
12	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	Spezia	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Udinese	10	2	5	3	-5	11
15	Cagliari	12	2	5	5	-6	11
16	Empoli	12	3	1	8	-14	10
17	Venezia	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-9	9
19	Genoa	11	0	5	6	-10	5
20	Salernitana	10	1	1	8	-19	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	12	9	3	0	+15	30
2	Milan	12	9	2	1	+14	29
3	Inter	11	7	3	1	+15	24
4	Napoli	11	7	3	1	+13	24
5	Juventus	12	6	4	2	+7	22
6	Empoli	11	5	4	2	+4	19
7	Sassuolo	11	4	4	3	+5	16
8	Roma	11	5	0	6	+5	15
9	Lazio	12	4	2	6	-5	14
10	Fiorentina	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Verona	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Spezia	12	4	1	7	-16	13
13	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-3	11
14	Bologna	11	3	2	6	-8	11
15	Udinese	11	2	4	5	-3	10
16	Venezia	11	2	3	6	-12	9
17	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-15	9
18	Torino	10	2	2	6	-4	8
19	Salernitana	11	2	1	8	-17	7
20	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.