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Serie A

Referee: M Marchetti

Spezia

T T T T S

0–3

Full-time

Napoli

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 45%

27%

62%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

59%

51%

Both score Ø 55%

59%

51%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

32% Possession 68%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	37	25	8	4	+35	83
2	Inter	37	24	9	4	+49	81
3	Napoli	37	23	7	7	+40	76
4	Juventus	38	20	10	8	+20	70
5	Lazio	38	18	10	10	+19	64
6	Roma	38	18	9	11	+16	63
7	Fiorentina	38	19	5	14	+8	62
8	Atalanta	38	16	11	11	+17	59
9	Verona	38	14	11	13	+6	53
10	Torino	38	13	11	14	+5	50
11	Sassuolo	37	13	11	13	+1	50
12	Bologna	38	12	10	16	-11	46
13	Udinese	37	10	14	13	-1	44
14	Empoli	38	10	11	17	-20	41
15	Sampdoria	37	10	6	21	-14	36
16	Spezia	37	10	6	21	-27	36
17	Salernitana	37	7	10	20	-41	31
18	Cagliari	37	6	11	20	-34	29
19	Genoa	38	4	16	18	-33	28
20	Venezia	37	6	8	23	-35	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	3	2	+29	42
2	Fiorentina	19	13	2	4	+18	41
3	Milan	19	12	4	3	+16	40
4	Napoli	19	11	3	5	+21	36
5	Lazio	19	10	6	3	+17	36
6	Roma	19	10	6	3	+10	36
7	Juventus	19	10	5	4	+11	35
8	Verona	19	9	3	7	+9	30
9	Torino	19	8	5	6	+8	29
10	Bologna	19	8	4	7	+1	28
11	Udinese	19	6	7	6	+2	25
12	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	+0	24
13	Sampdoria	19	6	3	10	-3	21
14	Atalanta	19	4	8	7	+2	20
15	Spezia	18	5	3	10	-6	18
16	Genoa	19	3	8	8	-11	17
17	Empoli	19	4	5	10	-16	17
18	Cagliari	19	3	6	10	-13	15
19	Salernitana	18	3	6	9	-18	15
20	Venezia	18	3	4	11	-17	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	18	13	4	1	+19	43
2	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+19	40
3	Inter	19	11	6	2	+20	39
4	Atalanta	19	12	3	4	+15	39
5	Juventus	19	10	5	4	+9	35
6	Lazio	19	8	4	7	+2	28
7	Roma	19	8	3	8	+6	27
8	Sassuolo	19	7	5	7	+1	26
9	Empoli	19	6	6	7	-4	24
10	Verona	19	5	8	6	-3	23
11	Torino	19	5	6	8	-3	21
12	Fiorentina	19	6	3	10	-10	21
13	Udinese	18	4	7	7	-3	19
14	Bologna	19	4	6	9	-12	18
15	Spezia	19	5	3	11	-21	18
16	Salernitana	19	4	4	11	-23	16
17	Sampdoria	18	4	3	11	-11	15
18	Cagliari	18	3	5	10	-21	14
19	Venezia	19	3	4	12	-18	13
20	Genoa	19	1	8	10	-22	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.