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Premier League
Referee: T Harrington
Newcastle
S U S S T
5–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Sheffield United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,7
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
3,0
4,5
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,3
3,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 33/34 matches
Win Ø 27%
45%
9%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
70%
71%
Both score Ø 57%
55%
59%
Average goals
3,7
3,7
Scored
2,1
1,0
Conceded
1,6
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,11 xG 1,55
60% Possession 40%
20 Shots 15
7 Shots on target 5
9 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Newcastle 7. · Sheffield United 20. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 34 24 5 5 +56 +44.4 77
2 Man City 33 23 7 3 +48 +38.3 76
3 Liverpool 35 22 9 4 +41 +38.2 75
4 Aston Villa 34 20 6 8 +21 +7.0 66
5 Tottenham 32 18 6 8 +16 +2.2 60
6 Man United 33 16 5 12 +1 -10.1 53
7 Newcastle 33 15 5 13 +15 +7.1 50
8 West Ham 35 13 10 12 -9 -17.1 49
9 Chelsea 32 13 8 11 +4 +12.6 47
10 Bournemouth 34 12 9 13 -11 -1.0 45
11 Brighton 33 11 11 11 -2 +0.8 44
12 Wolves 34 12 7 15 -8 -13.3 43
13 Fulham 34 12 6 16 -4 -9.3 42
14 Everton 34 11 8 15 -12 -1.2 41
15 Crystal Palace 34 10 9 15 -12 -7.5 39
16 Brentford 34 9 8 17 -7 +5.6 35
17 Nott'm Forest 34 7 9 18 -18 -4.4 30
18 Luton 34 6 7 21 -28 -33.4 25
19 Burnley 34 5 8 21 -32 -25.3 23
20 Sheffield United 34 3 7 24 -59 -33.6 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newcastle Sheffield United
5′
⚽ A. Ahmedhodžić 0–1
G. Hamer
1–1 A. Isak ⚽
J. Murphy
26′
Half-time 1–1
E. Krafth 🔁
↦ F. Schär
46′
2–1 Bruno Guimarães ⚽
A. Gordon
54′
3–1 A. Isak ⚽
61′
3–2 B. Osborn ⚽
own goal
65′
H. Barnes 🔁
↦ J. Murphy
66′
C. Wilson 🔁
↦ E. Anderson
66′
67′
🔁 J. Robinson
↦ M. Holgate
67′
🔁 W. Osula
↦ C. Archer
70′
🔁 Vinicius Souza
↦ A. Brooks
4–2 C. Wilson ⚽
H. Barnes
72′
79′
🔁 A. Ben Slimane
↦ G. Hamer
M. Ritchie 🔁
↦ A. Gordon
82′
A. Murphy 🔁
↦ L. Hall
82′
92′
ℹ️ Jayden Bogle
VAR: Penalty cancelled
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
1 M. Dúbravka G
21 T. Livramento D
5 F. Schär D
33 D. Burn D
20 L. Hall D
36 S. Longstaff M
39 Bruno Guimarães M
32 E. Anderson M
23 J. Murphy F
14 A. Isak F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (9)
17 E. Krafth
15 H. Barnes
9 C. Wilson
11 M. Ritchie
54 A. Murphy
3 P. Dummett
63 B. Parkinson
18 L. Karius
40 J. White

Coach: E. Howe

Sheffield United

3-5-2
18 W. Foderingham G
30 M. Holgate D
15 A. Ahmedhodžić D
5 A. Trusty D
20 J. Bogle M
8 G. Hamer M
24 O. Arblaster M
35 A. Brooks M
23 B. Osborn M
10 C. Archer F
11 B. Brereton F
Bench (9)
19 J. Robinson
32 W. Osula
21 Vinicius Souza
25 A. Ben Slimane
29 S. Curtis
34 L. Marsh
13 I. Grbić
27 Y. Larouci
16 O. Norwood

Coach: C. Wilder

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,23
U
7,04
B
11,10
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
1,33
U2,5
3,31
O3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

T Harrington · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.