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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

RB Leipzig

S U S S S

4–1

Full-time

Dortmund

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 57%

60%

53%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

70%

57%

Both score Ø 62%

60%

63%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,3

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,61 xG 1,67

39% Possession 61%

21 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	30	25	5	0	+55	+38.3	80
2	Bayern Munich	30	21	3	6	+50	+52.1	66
3	Stuttgart	30	20	3	7	+32	+31.9	63
4	RB Leipzig	30	18	5	7	+35	+26.1	59
5	Dortmund	30	16	9	5	+23	+10.5	57
6	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	12	7	+6	-3.1	45
7	Freiburg	30	11	7	12	-11	-2.7	40
8	Augsburg	30	10	9	11	-1	-5.7	39
9	Hoffenheim	31	11	6	14	-8	-10.9	39
10	Heidenheim	30	8	10	12	-9	-21.9	34
11	Werder Bremen	30	9	7	14	-12	-12.0	34
12	M'gladbach	30	7	10	13	-7	-6.8	31
13	Wolfsburg	30	8	7	15	-15	-3.6	31
14	Bochum	31	6	12	13	-25	-15.9	30
15	Union Berlin	30	8	5	17	-24	-10.6	29
16	Mainz	30	5	12	13	-17	-1.2	27
17	FC Koln	30	4	10	16	-30	-30.2	22
18	Darmstadt	30	3	8	19	-42	-34.2	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	15	13	2	0	+35	+27.1	41
2	Bayern Munich	15	12	1	2	+38	+32.8	37
3	Stuttgart	15	11	3	1	+29	+24.7	36
4	RB Leipzig	15	10	3	2	+25	+19.9	33
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	7	1	+12	+6.7	28
6	Dortmund	15	8	3	4	+7	+10.9	27
7	Augsburg	15	6	6	3	+4	+0.1	24
8	Bochum	16	5	8	3	+2	+4.6	23
9	Heidenheim	15	6	4	5	+1	-6.1	22
10	Werder Bremen	15	6	3	6	+0	-1.0	21
11	Freiburg	15	5	6	4	-1	+5.9	21
12	Union Berlin	15	6	2	7	-8	-4.0	20
13	Mainz	15	5	4	6	+2	+10.4	19
14	M'gladbach	15	5	4	6	+1	+5.5	19
15	Wolfsburg	15	5	4	6	-1	-0.9	19
16	Hoffenheim	15	5	4	6	-2	+3.4	19
17	FC Koln	15	3	3	9	-14	-11.3	12
18	Darmstadt	15	1	3	11	-22	-10.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	15	12	3	0	+20	+11.2	39
2	Dortmund	15	8	6	1	+16	-0.3	30
3	Bayern Munich	15	9	2	4	+12	+19.3	29
4	Stuttgart	15	9	0	6	+3	+7.2	27
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	2	5	+10	+6.2	26
6	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-6	-14.3	20
7	Freiburg	15	6	1	8	-10	-8.6	19
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	5	6	-6	-9.8	17
9	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.8	15
10	Werder Bremen	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.9	13
11	M'gladbach	15	2	6	7	-8	-12.3	12
12	Heidenheim	15	2	6	7	-10	-15.8	12
13	Wolfsburg	15	3	3	9	-14	-2.7	12
14	Darmstadt	15	2	5	8	-20	-23.7	11
15	FC Koln	15	1	7	7	-16	-18.9	10
16	Union Berlin	15	2	3	10	-16	-6.6	9
17	Mainz	15	0	8	7	-19	-11.6	8
18	Bochum	15	1	4	10	-27	-20.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.