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Ligue 2
Referee: A Valnet
Pau FC
S U S S U
1–2
Full-time
Guingamp
U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pau FC Guingamp
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,5
1,3
Scored
2,5
0,8
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,3
This season — Ligue 2 · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 37%
38%
35%
Points per game
1,5
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
56%
44%
Both score Ø 47%
59%
35%
Average goals
3,0
2,1
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%
11 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Pau FC 6. · Guingamp 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Auxerre 34 18 10 6 +29 64
2 St Etienne 35 19 6 10 +18 63
3 Angers 34 18 7 9 +14 61
4 Rodez 34 14 11 9 +10 53
5 Paris FC 34 14 10 10 +6 52
6 Pau FC 34 13 12 9 +7 51
7 Caen 35 15 6 14 +2 51
8 Laval 34 13 10 11 -5 49
9 Guingamp 34 12 11 11 +5 47
10 Bastia 34 13 8 13 -3 47
11 Grenoble 34 11 12 11 +1 45
12 Amiens 34 10 15 9 -3 45
13 Bordeaux 34 12 9 13 -4 45
14 Ajaccio 34 12 9 13 -4 45
15 Dunkerque 34 11 8 15 -15 41
16 Annecy 34 10 9 15 -3 39
17 Troyes 34 8 12 14 -8 36
18 Concarneau 34 9 8 17 -15 35
19 Quevilly Rouen 34 6 16 12 -3 34
20 Valenciennes 34 3 11 20 -29 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pau FC Guingamp
15′
H. Picard 0–1
B. Guillaume
Half-time 0–1
J. Obiang 🔁
↦ C. Boli
46′
Xavier Kouassi 🟨
56′
56′
🟨 Maxime Sivis
M. Bassouamina 🔁
↦ M. Chahiri
63′
Y. Begraoui 🔁
↦ I. Mohamed
63′
K. Boutaïb 🔁
↦ X. Kouassi
63′
74′
🔁 A. Sagna
↦ B. Guillaume
74′
🔁 J. Siwe
↦ A. El Ouazzani
S. D'Almeida 🔁
↦ S. Beusnard
76′
82′
🔁 D. Louiserre
↦ M. Merghem
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou 🟨
88′
92′
🔁 L. Phiri
↦ V. Lobry
1–1 M. Bassouamina
J. Ruiz
92′
93′
Jordy Gaspar 2–1
own goal
Khalid Boutaïb 🟨
95′
95′
🟨 Jacques Siwe
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Pau FC

3-1-4-2
1 B. Kamara G
22 A. Ahoussou D
4 X. Kouassi D
25 J. Ruiz D
27 I. Mohamed M
12 Jordy Gaspar M
8 H. Saivet M
21 S. Beusnard M
70 C. Boli M
7 M. Sylla F
99 M. Chahiri F
Bench (7)
23 J. Obiang
11 M. Bassouamina
9 Y. Begraoui
10 K. Boutaïb
6 S. D'Almeida
40 M. Jeannin
18 O. Ngom

Coach: N. Usaï

Guingamp

4-2-3-1
16 E. Basilio G
27 M. Sivis D
24 P. Lemonnier D
2 B. Roux D
31 L. Maronnier D
8 K. Sidibé M
22 V. Lobry M
10 M. Merghem M
21 B. Guillaume M
20 H. Picard M
9 A. El Ouazzani F
Bench (7)
11 A. Sagna
17 J. Siwe
4 D. Louiserre
18 L. Phiri
29 U. Bonnet
15 V. Manceau
30 B. Niasse

Coach: S. Dumont

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,04
U
3,13
B ✓
2,36
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,19
U2,5
1,65
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Valnet · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.