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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Roma

S T S U T

1–1

Full-time

Juventus

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 52%

50%

53%

Points per game

1,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

62%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

62%

44%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,76 xG 1,20

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Juventus 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	35	28	5	2	+62	+45.6	89
2	Milan	35	21	8	6	+25	+16.5	71
3	Juventus	34	18	11	5	+21	+25.0	65
4	Bologna	35	17	13	5	+22	+11.2	64
5	Roma	34	17	8	9	+20	+11.7	59
6	Atalanta	33	17	6	10	+24	+11.5	57
7	Lazio	35	17	5	13	+8	+4.6	56
8	Fiorentina	34	14	8	12	+12	+3.3	50
9	Napoli	34	13	11	10	+9	+21.2	50
10	Torino	35	11	14	10	+0	+4.1	47
11	Monza	35	11	12	12	-8	-13.5	45
12	Genoa	35	10	13	12	-2	-6.5	43
13	Lecce	35	8	13	14	-18	-8.4	37
14	Verona	35	8	10	17	-13	-12.6	34
15	Cagliari	35	7	12	16	-23	-11.1	33
16	Frosinone	35	7	11	17	-20	-14.0	32
17	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-24	-17.6	32
18	Udinese	34	4	17	13	-19	-10.9	29
19	Sassuolo	35	7	8	20	-29	-21.3	29
20	Salernitana	34	2	9	23	-47	-39.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Roma	17	11	3	3	+18	+11.6	36
4	Milan	17	11	3	3	+17	+10.2	36
5	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+13	+17.8	36
6	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+23	+13.6	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+7	+8.6	30
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Frosinone	17	7	4	6	+2	-3.2	25
11	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
12	Genoa	17	6	6	5	+2	-1.3	24
13	Napoli	17	6	6	5	-1	+12.3	24
14	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
15	Lecce	17	6	6	5	-6	+0.4	24
16	Verona	17	6	5	6	-2	-5.1	23
17	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-9	-9.6	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	17	1	9	7	-8	-2.0	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	14	2	1	+29	+18.0	44
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	17	8	5	4	+8	+7.2	29
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
6	Bologna	17	5	9	3	+1	+2.1	24
7	Roma	17	6	5	6	+2	+0.1	23
8	Atalanta	17	6	4	7	+1	-2.0	22
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	-2	-5.8	19
11	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-4	-5.2	19
12	Torino	17	4	5	8	-7	-4.2	17
13	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-11	-8.9	17
14	Empoli	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.1	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	17	2	3	12	-20	-11.6	9
18	Cagliari	17	1	5	11	-20	-16.0	8
19	Frosinone	18	0	7	11	-22	-10.8	7
20	Salernitana	17	1	4	12	-28	-24.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.