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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Monza

T T T S T

1–1

Full-time

Lecce

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,18 xG 0,89

61% Possession 39%

25 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 11

6 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Monza 15. · Lecce 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.1	12
2	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.3	10
3	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
4	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.4	7
5	Lecce	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.5	7
6	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
7	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
8	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.5	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.7	4
10	Frosinone	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.4	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
12	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
13	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
14	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.4	3
15	Monza	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
16	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.6	3
17	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
18	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
19	Roma	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.6	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.9	9
2	Lecce	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.6	6
3	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
4	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
5	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
6	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
7	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
8	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
9	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
11	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
12	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
13	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
14	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
18	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.2	6
2	Milan	3	2	0	1	-1	-0.8	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
6	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
7	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.6	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
9	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
10	Udinese	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
11	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
15	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.5	1
16	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.4	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
19	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.