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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Monza

U S U T T

0–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 37%

64%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

36%

91%

Both score Ø 64%

45%

82%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

0,9

2,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,96 xG 1,61

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 19. · Lazio 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	12	8	1	3	+16	+10.7	25
2	Fiorentina	12	7	4	1	+15	+8.3	25
3	Napoli	11	8	1	2	+10	+7.4	25
4	Juventus	12	6	6	0	+14	+9.5	24
5	Inter	11	7	3	1	+12	+7.7	24
6	Lazio	11	7	1	3	+10	+10.0	22
7	Milan	11	5	3	3	+6	+9.1	18
8	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+2	+0.5	18
9	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-3	-6.3	16
10	Empoli	12	3	6	3	-1	-7.3	15
11	Torino	12	4	2	6	-3	-5.4	14
12	Roma	12	3	4	5	-3	-1.1	13
13	Parma	12	2	6	4	-2	-1.5	12
14	Verona	12	4	0	8	-10	-7.8	12
15	Como	12	2	4	6	-10	-1.8	10
16	Cagliari	12	2	4	6	-10	-5.7	10
17	Genoa	12	2	4	6	-13	-8.7	10
18	Lecce	12	2	3	7	-16	-6.0	9
19	Monza	11	1	5	5	-4	-5.9	8
20	Venezia	12	2	2	8	-10	-5.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	6	5	1	0	+8	+9.1	16
2	Atalanta	6	5	0	1	+12	+6.7	15
3	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.2	15
4	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.2	14
5	Inter	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.1	13
6	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+6	+6.3	13
7	Udinese	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.3	12
8	Milan	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.6	10
9	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.5	9
10	Verona	6	3	0	3	-2	-1.3	9
11	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-8	-0.6	8
12	Bologna	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.6	7
13	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.4	7
14	Venezia	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.8	6
15	Empoli	6	1	3	2	-3	-1.9	6
16	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-7	-1.3	6
17	Parma	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
18	Como	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.3	5
19	Genoa	7	0	4	3	-6	-3.3	4
20	Monza	6	0	3	3	-3	-2.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+8	+3.1	11
2	Fiorentina	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.1	11
3	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.6	11
4	Bologna	6	3	2	1	+1	-1.1	11
5	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+4	+4.0	10
6	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.2	10
7	Empoli	6	2	3	1	+2	-5.3	9
8	Milan	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.5	8
9	Parma	6	1	4	1	+0	-1.8	7
10	Torino	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.0	7
11	Lazio	5	2	0	3	+2	+1.0	6
12	Genoa	5	2	0	3	-7	-5.5	6
13	Monza	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
14	Como	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.5	5
15	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.4	4
16	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-5	-3.9	4
17	Roma	6	0	4	2	-5	-1.6	4
18	Verona	6	1	0	5	-8	-6.5	3
19	Venezia	7	0	2	5	-9	-7.5	2
20	Lecce	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.