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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Milan

S S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Inter

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 70%

59%

81%

Points per game

2,1

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 47%

52%

41%

Average goals

2,3

3,1

Scored

1,6

2,4

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,85 xG 1,02

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Inter 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	27	22	1	4	+43	+34.4	67
2	Milan	27	16	9	2	+23	+16.8	57
3	Napoli	28	17	5	6	+14	+9.1	56
4	Como	28	14	9	5	+25	+19.8	51
5	Roma	28	16	3	9	+17	+8.2	51
6	Juventus	28	14	8	6	+22	+25.1	50
7	Atalanta	28	12	10	6	+13	+11.9	46
8	Bologna	28	11	6	11	+3	-0.2	39
9	Sassuolo	27	11	5	11	-2	-9.3	38
10	Udinese	28	10	6	12	-8	-7.5	36
11	Lazio	27	8	10	9	-1	-7.9	34
12	Parma	28	8	10	10	-12	-15.8	34
13	Genoa	28	7	9	12	-6	+0.3	30
14	Cagliari	28	7	9	12	-8	-13.6	30
15	Torino	28	8	6	14	-21	-10.7	30
16	Lecce	28	7	6	15	-17	-19.9	27
17	Fiorentina	28	5	10	13	-12	+5.6	25
18	Cremonese	28	5	9	14	-18	-19.4	24
19	Verona	28	3	9	16	-27	-8.8	18
20	Pisa	28	1	12	15	-28	-17.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	1	2	+26	+21.5	34
2	Napoli	13	9	4	0	+11	+1.5	31
3	Juventus	14	8	5	1	+17	+16.8	29
4	Roma	14	9	2	3	+13	+9.7	29
5	Atalanta	15	8	5	2	+11	+14.1	29
6	Como	14	7	5	2	+14	+14.6	26
7	Milan	13	7	4	2	+7	+10.8	25
8	Sassuolo	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.5	20
9	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
10	Genoa	15	5	4	6	+0	+3.1	19
11	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-2	+0.3	19
12	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-2	+2.5	17
13	Torino	14	5	2	7	-7	-5.9	17
14	Cagliari	14	4	4	6	-1	-4.9	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	5	6	-1	+8.6	14
17	Parma	14	3	5	6	-8	-7.7	14
18	Cremonese	13	2	6	5	-6	-4.2	12
19	Verona	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.4	7
20	Pisa	14	1	4	9	-13	-5.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	0	2	+17	+12.9	33
2	Milan	14	9	5	0	+16	+6.0	32
3	Como	14	7	4	3	+11	+5.2	25
4	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+3	+7.5	25
5	Bologna	14	6	4	4	+5	-2.7	22
6	Roma	14	7	1	6	+4	-1.5	22
7	Juventus	14	6	3	5	+5	+8.3	21
8	Parma	14	5	5	4	-4	-8.0	20
9	Sassuolo	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.8	18
10	Atalanta	13	4	5	4	+2	-2.2	17
11	Udinese	14	5	2	7	-6	-7.8	17
12	Lazio	14	3	6	5	-3	-7.6	15
13	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-7	-8.7	14
14	Torino	14	3	4	7	-14	-4.9	13
15	Cremonese	15	3	3	9	-12	-15.1	12
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-6	-2.8	11
17	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-9	-16.4	11
18	Fiorentina	14	2	5	7	-11	-3.0	11
19	Verona	15	2	5	8	-18	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	14	0	8	6	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.