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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Milan

U T S S T

3–2

Full-time

Torino

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Torino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 45%

59%

31%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

41%

62%

Both score Ø 47%

48%

45%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,49 xG 2,25

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Torino 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	29	22	2	5	+42	+35.0	68
2	Napoli	30	19	5	6	+16	+10.5	62
3	Milan	29	17	9	3	+23	+17.6	60
4	Como	29	15	9	5	+26	+20.8	54
5	Juventus	29	15	8	6	+23	+27.7	53
6	Roma	29	16	3	10	+16	+7.2	51
7	Atalanta	29	12	11	6	+13	+11.4	47
8	Bologna	29	12	6	11	+4	+0.3	42
9	Lazio	29	10	10	9	+1	-7.1	40
10	Udinese	30	11	6	13	-7	-10.3	39
11	Sassuolo	29	11	5	13	-4	-11.6	38
12	Parma	30	8	10	12	-17	-17.9	34
13	Genoa	30	8	9	13	-6	+0.7	33
14	Torino	29	9	6	14	-18	-9.1	33
15	Cagliari	30	7	9	14	-11	-16.3	30
16	Fiorentina	29	6	10	13	-9	+5.8	28
17	Lecce	29	7	6	16	-18	-19.9	27
18	Cremonese	30	6	9	15	-19	-19.2	27
19	Pisa	29	2	12	15	-26	-16.6	18
20	Verona	29	3	9	17	-29	-9.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	2	2	+26	+21.9	35
2	Napoli	14	10	4	0	+12	+1.5	34
3	Juventus	14	8	5	1	+17	+16.8	29
4	Como	15	8	5	2	+15	+15.6	29
5	Roma	14	9	2	3	+13	+9.7	29
6	Atalanta	15	8	5	2	+11	+14.1	29
7	Milan	14	8	4	2	+8	+10.6	28
8	Lazio	15	7	4	4	+4	+0.5	25
9	Torino	15	6	2	7	-4	-4.2	20
10	Sassuolo	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
11	Genoa	16	5	4	7	-2	+3.3	19
12	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
13	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-2	+2.5	17
14	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-2	-6.3	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	5	6	-1	+8.6	14
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-10	-8.2	14
18	Cremonese	14	2	6	6	-9	-4.5	12
19	Pisa	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Verona	14	1	4	9	-11	-2.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	0	3	+16	+13.1	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+15	+7.0	32
3	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+4	+9.0	28
4	Como	14	7	4	3	+11	+5.2	25
5	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+6	-2.2	25
6	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.9	24
7	Roma	15	7	1	7	+3	-2.5	22
8	Udinese	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
9	Parma	15	5	5	5	-7	-9.7	20
10	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+2	-2.7	18
11	Sassuolo	14	5	3	6	+0	-3.6	18
12	Lazio	14	3	6	5	-3	-7.6	15
13	Cremonese	16	4	3	9	-10	-14.7	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.5	14
15	Fiorentina	15	3	5	7	-8	-2.7	14
16	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-9	-10.0	14
17	Torino	14	3	4	7	-14	-4.9	13
18	Lecce	14	3	2	9	-10	-16.4	11
19	Verona	15	2	5	8	-18	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	14	0	8	6	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.