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Premier League
Referee: A Taylor
West Ham
T S T U S
2–5
Full-time
Arsenal
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
58%
42%
Both score Ø 54%
58%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–5

1,54 xG 3,60
40% Possession 60%
12 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 10
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Ham 14. · Arsenal 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Liverpool 12 10 1 1 +16 +13.1 31
2 Brighton 13 6 5 2 +5 -1.9 23
3 Man City 12 7 2 3 +5 +8.6 23
4 Chelsea 12 6 4 2 +9 +6.4 22
5 Arsenal 12 6 4 2 +9 +6.0 22
6 Nott'm Forest 13 6 4 3 +3 +3.5 22
7 Brentford 13 6 2 5 +3 -0.3 20
8 Tottenham 12 6 1 5 +14 +8.9 19
9 Aston Villa 12 5 4 3 +0 +5.1 19
10 Newcastle 13 5 4 4 +0 +0.8 19
11 Bournemouth 13 5 3 5 +1 +7.7 18
12 Fulham 12 5 3 4 +0 +4.1 18
13 Man United 12 4 4 4 +0 -0.4 16
14 West Ham 12 4 3 5 -4 -3.8 15
15 Everton 12 2 5 5 -7 -3.7 11
16 Leicester 13 2 4 7 -11 -12.3 10
17 Crystal Palace 13 1 6 6 -7 -2.6 9
18 Wolves 13 2 3 8 -10 -10.9 9
19 Ipswich 13 1 6 6 -11 -14.7 9
20 Southampton 13 1 2 10 -15 -13.5 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Ham Arsenal
10′
⚽ Gabriel Magalhães 0–1
B. Saka
27′
⚽ L. Trossard 0–2
B. Saka
34′
⚽ M. Ødegaard 0–3
36′
⚽ K. Havertz 0–4
L. Trossard
1–4 A. Wan-Bissaka ⚽
Carlos Soler
38′
2–4 Emerson ⚽
40′
Emerson Palmieri 🟨
42′
42′
🟨 Bukayo Saka
Half-time 2–4
Crysencio Summerville 🟨
46′
E. Álvarez 🔁
↦ C. Summerville
46′
46′
🔁 J. Kiwior
↦ Gabriel Magalhães
Łukasz Fabiański 🟨
48′
50′
⚽ B. Saka 2–5
56′
🔁 O. Zinchenko
↦ R. Calafiori
D. Ings 🔁
↦ M. Antonio
65′
V. Coufal 🔁
↦ Emerson
65′
74′
🔁 Gabriel Jesus
↦ M. Ødegaard
74′
🔁 R. Sterling
↦ B. Saka
G. Rodríguez 🔁
↦ Lucas Paquetá
77′
A. Irving 🔁
↦ Carlos Soler
78′
85′
🔁 E. Nwaneri
↦ L. Trossard
Tomáš Souček 🟨
94′
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1
1 Ł. Fabiański G
29 A. Wan-Bissaka D
25 J. Todibo D
26 M. Kilman D
33 Emerson D
28 T. Souček M
10 Lucas Paquetá M
20 J. Bowen M
4 Carlos Soler M
7 C. Summerville M
9 M. Antonio F
Bench (9)
19 E. Álvarez
18 D. Ings
5 V. Coufal
24 G. Rodríguez
39 A. Irving
57 O. Scarles
23 A. Areola
17 Luis Guilherme
63 E. Mayers

Coach: Lopetegui

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
33 R. Calafiori D
8 M. Ødegaard M
20 Jorginho M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
29 K. Havertz F
19 L. Trossard F
Bench (9)
15 J. Kiwior
17 O. Zinchenko
9 Gabriel Jesus
30 R. Sterling
53 E. Nwaneri
3 K. Tierney
32 Neto
11 Gabriel Martinelli
51 J. Nichols

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,09
U
4,68
B ✓
1,46
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
1,70
U2,5
2,19
O3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.