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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man City

T T T U T

3–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

54%

46%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

69%

38%

Both score Ø 58%

69%

46%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,41 xG 0,88

66% Possession 34%

17 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 5. · Nott'm Forest 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	11	1	1	+18	+15.8	34
2	Chelsea	13	7	4	2	+12	+6.8	25
3	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+8.0	25
4	Brighton	13	6	5	2	+5	-1.9	23
5	Man City	13	7	2	4	+3	+5.8	23
6	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+3	+3.5	22
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+14	+8.1	20
8	Brentford	13	6	2	5	+3	-0.3	20
9	Man United	13	5	4	4	+4	+0.1	19
10	Fulham	13	5	4	4	+0	+4.9	19
11	Newcastle	13	5	4	4	+0	+0.8	19
12	Aston Villa	13	5	4	4	-3	+4.7	19
13	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+1	+7.7	18
14	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-9	-4.1	15
15	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	-14.0	13
16	Crystal Palace	14	2	6	6	-6	-1.4	12
17	Everton	13	2	5	6	-11	-4.2	11
18	Wolves	13	2	3	8	-10	-10.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	6	7	-12	-15.9	9
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-15	-13.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	7	6	1	0	+10	+7.2	19
2	Liverpool	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.7	18
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.5	14
4	Tottenham	7	4	1	2	+10	+5.0	13
5	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
6	Man United	7	4	1	2	+3	-0.1	13
7	Man City	6	4	1	1	+2	+7.1	13
8	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
10	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.7	10
11	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.9	10
12	Fulham	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.3	10
13	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.1	9
14	Leicester	7	2	2	3	-1	-7.4	8
15	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
16	Everton	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
17	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.3	6
18	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.8	4
19	Ipswich	7	0	4	3	-5	-3.7	4
20	Wolves	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+8	+7.1	16
2	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	-0.1	13
3	Arsenal	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.4	11
4	Nott'm Forest	6	3	2	1	+1	+0.8	11
5	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.5	10
6	Man City	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.3	10
7	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.5	10
8	Fulham	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.6	9
9	Newcastle	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.1	9
10	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.0	8
11	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.4	8
12	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	+4	+3.1	7
13	Man United	6	1	3	2	+1	+0.2	6
14	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.7	6
15	Wolves	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.2	5
16	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-7	-12.1	5
17	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-8	-6.6	5
18	Everton	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.1	5
19	Brentford	6	0	1	5	-7	-7.6	1
20	Southampton	7	0	1	6	-10	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.