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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Liverpool

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Man City

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

2,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 71%

83%

58%

Points per game

2,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

58%

75%

Both score Ø 59%

42%

75%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,57 xG 0,84

44% Possession 56%

18 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

4 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Man City 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	10	1	1	+16	+13.1	31
2	Chelsea	13	7	4	2	+12	+6.8	25
3	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+8.0	25
4	Brighton	13	6	5	2	+5	-1.9	23
5	Man City	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.6	23
6	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+3	+3.5	22
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+14	+8.1	20
8	Brentford	13	6	2	5	+3	-0.3	20
9	Man United	13	5	4	4	+4	+0.1	19
10	Fulham	13	5	4	4	+0	+4.9	19
11	Newcastle	13	5	4	4	+0	+0.8	19
12	Aston Villa	13	5	4	4	-3	+4.7	19
13	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+1	+7.7	18
14	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-7	-5.8	15
15	Everton	13	2	5	6	-11	-4.2	11
16	Leicester	13	2	4	7	-11	-12.3	10
17	Crystal Palace	13	1	6	6	-7	-2.6	9
18	Wolves	13	2	3	8	-10	-10.9	9
19	Ipswich	13	1	6	6	-11	-14.7	9
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-15	-13.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	7	6	1	0	+10	+7.2	19
2	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+8	+6.0	15
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.5	14
4	Tottenham	7	4	1	2	+10	+5.0	13
5	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
6	Man United	7	4	1	2	+3	-0.1	13
7	Man City	6	4	1	1	+2	+7.1	13
8	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
10	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.7	10
11	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.9	10
12	Fulham	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.3	10
13	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.1	9
14	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
15	Everton	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
16	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.3	6
17	Leicester	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.7	5
18	Ipswich	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.6	4
19	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.8	4
20	Wolves	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+8	+7.1	16
2	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	-0.1	13
3	Arsenal	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.4	11
4	Nott'm Forest	6	3	2	1	+1	+0.8	11
5	Man City	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.5	10
6	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.5	10
7	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.5	10
8	Fulham	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.6	9
9	Newcastle	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.1	9
10	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.0	8
11	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-2	-4.1	8
12	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	+4	+3.1	7
13	Man United	6	1	3	2	+1	+0.2	6
14	Wolves	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.2	5
15	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-7	-12.1	5
16	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-8	-6.6	5
17	Everton	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.1	5
18	Crystal Palace	6	0	3	3	-3	-3.9	3
19	Brentford	6	0	1	5	-7	-7.6	1
20	Southampton	7	0	1	6	-10	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.