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Copa del Rey

Referee: Francisco Hernández

Estepona

2–2

Full-time

Leganes

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estepona Leganes

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

5,0

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Estepona 34. · Leganes 37. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Betis	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Santander	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
14	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
16	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
19	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Girona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
22	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Pontevedra	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Estepona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Cacereño	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	UD Logroñés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Conquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Ejea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
58	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
59	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
60	Olot	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
69	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
70	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
71	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
72	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
108	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
109	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
113	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
114	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
115	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
119	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
120	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
121	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Pontevedra	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Estepona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Cacereño	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	UD Logroñés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Conquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Ejea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
17	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
18	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Olot	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
24	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
25	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
64	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
65	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
66	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Betis	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
12	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Girona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estepona Leganes

1–0 Rubén Mesa ⚽

25′

O. Riera 🟨

41′

A. Carrasco 🟨

43′

Half-time 1–0

46′

🔁 Javi Hernández

↦ Iker Bachiller

47′

⚽ M. El Haddadi 1–1

Adrià Alti

2–1 Orobiogoikoetxea ⚽

Álex Carrasco

60′

Hugo Rodríguez 🔁

↦ Orobiogoikoetxea

64′

72′

🔁 Diego García

↦ Roberto López

J. Dago 🔁

↦ Rubén Mesa

72′

Juanan Aguilera 🔁

↦ Álex Carrasco

72′

🔁 Óscar Rodríguez

↦ J. Porozo

72′

🔁 Dani Raba

↦ J. Chicco

80′

🔁 R. Tapia

↦ S. Cissé

A. Liceras 🟨

80′

82′

⚽ Javi Hernández 2–2

Diego García

Jorge García 🔁

↦ Ramón Blázquez

83′

Fran Lara 🔁

↦ Marchena

83′

84′

🟨 J. Hernandez

97′

🔁 V. Rosier

↦ Adrià Alti

104′

🟨 O. Rodriguez

R. Lafarge 🔁

↦ Alfonso Candelas

120′

3–2 Hugo Rodríguez ⚽

121′

122′

⚽ Óscar Rodríguez 3–3

J. Dago ❌

penalty missed

123′

J. Dago ❌

penalty missed

123′

J. Dago ❌

penalty missed

123′

J. Dago ❌

penalty missed

123′

J. Dago ❌

penalty missed

123′

J. Dago ❌

penalty missed

123′

124′

⚽ R. Tapia 3–4

4–4 Jorge García ⚽

125′

126′

⚽ Diego García 4–5

5–5 Nacho Goma ⚽

127′

128′

⚽ M. El Haddadi 5–6

6–6 José Caro ⚽

129′

130′

⚽ Juan Cruz 6–7

Full-time 6–7

Line-ups

Estepona

13 Alfonso Liceras

22 José Caro

5 Antonio Marín

3 Alfonso Candelas

4 Diego Mirapeix

7 Ramón Blázquez

27 Álex Carrasco

8 Nacho Goma

16 Marchena

28 Orobiogoikoetxea

9 Rubén Mesa

Bench (11)

10 Hugo Rodríguez

19 J. Dago

15 Juanan Aguilera

14 Jorge García

6 Fran Lara

18 R. Lafarge

1 David Gil

24 Álvaro Hidalgo

23 Mati Castillo

11 Ruizma

29 Pablo Aguilar

Coach: Oriol Riera

Leganes

Juan Soriano

Jorge Sáenz

4 J. Porozo

Adrià Alti

28 Iker Bachiller

J. Chicco

8 S. Cissé

Juan Cruz

Roberto López

18 S. Haller

M. El Haddadi

Bench (11)

20 Javi Hernández

7 Óscar Rodríguez

19 Diego García

10 Dani Raba

5 R. Tapia

12 V. Rosier

30 Adrián Rosell

36 Alvin

27 Naim García

6 Sergio González

13 M. Dmitrović

Coach: Borja Jiménez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

U ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

31. Oct CDR 1 year ago

Referee

Francisco Hernández · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

5,0 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

26,5 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Estepona

Leganes

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee