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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Ajaccio

T T T T S

0–2

Full-time

Nantes

U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 22%

24%

19%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

43%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,30 xG 0,61

43% Possession 57%

8 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 17. · Nantes 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	17	3	2	+37	+4.1	54
2	Marseille	21	14	4	3	+25	+0.3	46
3	Lens	21	13	6	2	+18	+0.1	45
4	Monaco	22	13	5	4	+19	+1.0	44
5	Rennes	22	12	4	6	+16	+1.1	40
6	Lille	22	11	5	6	+11	+1.0	38
7	Lorient	21	10	5	6	+1	-4.2	35
8	Lyon	22	9	5	8	+9	+2.0	32
9	Nice	21	8	7	6	+4	+1.3	31
10	Clermont	22	8	6	8	-5	-0.3	30
11	Reims	21	6	11	4	+0	+4.4	29
12	Toulouse	22	8	5	9	-2	+0.2	29
13	Nantes	21	4	10	7	-5	-1.3	22
14	Montpellier	21	6	2	13	-12	-5.0	20
15	Brest	21	4	7	10	-11	-1.2	19
16	Troyes	22	4	7	11	-15	-2.6	19
17	Ajaccio	21	5	3	13	-19	+0.8	18
18	Strasbourg	21	2	9	10	-14	-1.2	15
19	Auxerre	21	3	4	14	-28	+1.3	13
20	Angers	21	2	2	17	-29	-1.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	12	10	0	2	+18	+0.5	30
2	Lens	11	10	0	1	+14	-1.6	30
3	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+16	+0.2	29
4	Marseille	11	7	2	2	+12	-0.1	23
5	Lille	11	6	3	2	+4	+0.1	21
6	Monaco	11	6	2	3	+8	-0.1	20
7	Toulouse	11	5	4	2	+4	+1.1	19
8	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+8	+2.0	18
9	Lorient	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.6	17
10	Reims	10	4	4	2	+1	+3.6	16
11	Nice	10	4	3	3	+3	-0.3	15
12	Nantes	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.4	14
13	Clermont	11	4	2	5	-8	-0.1	14
14	Troyes	11	1	7	3	-5	-1.5	10
15	Brest	10	2	4	4	-6	+0.9	10
16	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-8	-3.9	10
17	Auxerre	10	2	3	5	-10	+1.1	9
18	Ajaccio	10	2	1	7	-9	-0.2	7
19	Strasbourg	11	0	6	5	-8	-0.2	6
20	Angers	11	1	1	9	-12	-1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	1	2	+21	+3.9	25
2	Monaco	11	7	3	1	+11	+1.1	24
3	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+13	+0.4	23
4	Lorient	11	5	3	3	-1	-3.6	18
5	Lille	11	5	2	4	+7	+0.8	17
6	Clermont	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.1	16
7	Nice	11	4	4	3	+1	+1.6	16
8	Lens	10	3	6	1	+4	+1.7	15
9	Lyon	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.0	14
10	Reims	11	2	7	2	-1	+0.8	13
11	Ajaccio	11	3	2	6	-10	+1.0	11
12	Rennes	10	2	4	4	-2	+0.6	10
13	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-1.1	10
14	Toulouse	11	3	1	7	-6	-0.9	10
15	Brest	11	2	3	6	-5	-2.0	9
16	Strasbourg	10	2	3	5	-6	-1.0	9
17	Troyes	11	3	0	8	-10	-1.1	9
18	Nantes	11	1	5	5	-6	-0.9	8
19	Angers	10	1	1	8	-17	-0.9	4
20	Auxerre	11	1	1	9	-18	+0.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.