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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Toulouse

S S U S S

4–1

Full-time

Troyes

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

3,2

0,8

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,7

-1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 28%

35%

20%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,3

3,6

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,8

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,27 xG 1,22

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 0

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Troyes 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	15	3	2	+34	-0.8	48
2	Lens	20	13	6	1	+19	+1.7	45
3	Marseille	20	13	4	3	+23	-0.1	43
4	Monaco	20	11	5	4	+16	+0.1	38
5	Rennes	20	11	4	5	+15	+0.6	37
6	Lorient	20	10	5	5	+3	-0.6	35
7	Lille	20	10	4	6	+9	+0.3	34
8	Clermont	20	8	5	7	-3	+0.9	29
9	Lyon	20	8	4	8	+7	+0.2	28
10	Nice	20	7	7	6	+3	-0.3	28
11	Reims	20	5	11	4	-2	+0.8	26
12	Toulouse	20	7	5	8	-4	+0.2	26
13	Nantes	20	4	10	6	-3	-0.9	22
14	Montpellier	20	6	2	12	-10	-1.1	20
15	Troyes	20	4	7	9	-10	-1.7	19
16	Brest	20	4	6	10	-11	+0.9	18
17	Strasbourg	20	2	9	9	-11	-0.2	15
18	Ajaccio	20	4	3	13	-20	-0.2	15
19	Auxerre	20	3	4	13	-27	+1.1	13
20	Angers	20	2	2	16	-28	-0.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	10	10	0	0	+15	–	30
2	Rennes	10	9	0	1	+17	–	27
3	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+15	-0.8	26
4	Marseille	11	7	2	2	+12	-0.1	23
5	Lille	10	6	2	2	+4	–	20
6	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+8	–	17
7	Monaco	10	5	2	3	+7	–	17
8	Lorient	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.6	17
9	Toulouse	10	4	4	2	+1	–	16
10	Nice	10	4	3	3	+3	-0.3	15
11	Nantes	9	3	5	1	+3	–	14
12	Clermont	10	4	2	4	-6	+0.9	14
13	Reims	9	3	4	2	-1	–	13
14	Troyes	10	1	7	2	-3	-1.7	10
15	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-6	–	10
16	Brest	10	2	4	4	-6	+0.9	10
17	Auxerre	10	2	3	5	-10	+1.1	9
18	Ajaccio	10	2	1	7	-9	-0.2	7
19	Strasbourg	11	0	6	5	-8	-0.2	6
20	Angers	10	1	1	8	-11	–	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	1	2	+19	–	22
2	Monaco	10	6	3	1	+9	+0.1	21
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+11	–	20
4	Lorient	10	5	3	2	+1	–	18
5	Lens	10	3	6	1	+4	+1.7	15
6	Clermont	10	4	3	3	+3	–	15
7	Lille	10	4	2	4	+5	+0.3	14
8	Nice	10	3	4	3	+0	–	13
9	Reims	11	2	7	2	-1	+0.8	13
10	Lyon	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.2	11
11	Rennes	10	2	4	4	-2	+0.6	10
12	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-1.1	10
13	Toulouse	10	3	1	6	-5	+0.2	10
14	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
15	Troyes	10	3	0	7	-7	–	9
16	Brest	10	2	2	6	-5	–	8
17	Nantes	11	1	5	5	-6	-0.9	8
18	Ajaccio	10	2	2	6	-11	–	8
19	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-17	–	4
20	Angers	10	1	1	8	-17	-0.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.