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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Strasbourg

T S T S U

0–1

Full-time

Brest

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 16%

16%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

60%

52%

Both score Ø 68%

76%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,21 xG 0,85

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 15. · Brest 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	20	3	3	+41	+3.0	63
2	Marseille	25	16	4	5	+23	+1.8	52
3	Monaco	26	15	6	5	+19	+4.6	51
4	Lens	26	14	9	3	+19	+3.5	51
5	Rennes	25	14	4	7	+17	+0.2	46
6	Lille	26	13	6	7	+13	+5.5	45
7	Nice	26	11	9	6	+12	+2.5	42
8	Lorient	25	11	6	8	+2	-1.0	39
9	Lyon	25	11	5	9	+11	+1.3	38
10	Reims	25	8	13	4	+7	+7.6	37
11	Toulouse	25	9	5	11	-4	+0.2	32
12	Clermont	25	8	7	10	-9	-3.5	31
13	Nantes	26	6	10	10	-7	-2.7	28
14	Montpellier	25	8	3	14	-10	-3.0	27
15	Strasbourg	25	4	10	11	-13	-3.2	22
16	Auxerre	26	5	7	14	-26	+2.2	22
17	Ajaccio	25	6	3	16	-26	+0.9	21
18	Brest	25	4	8	13	-16	-5.3	20
19	Troyes	26	4	8	14	-21	-10.4	20
20	Angers	25	2	4	19	-32	-4.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+19	+0.8	35
2	Lens	13	11	1	1	+16	-0.1	34
3	Rennes	13	11	0	2	+20	+1.8	33
4	Lille	13	8	3	2	+7	+3.5	27
5	Monaco	13	7	2	4	+7	+0.6	23
6	Marseille	13	7	2	4	+7	+0.5	23
7	Reims	12	6	4	2	+8	+6.8	22
8	Toulouse	13	6	4	3	+5	+2.7	22
9	Lyon	12	6	3	3	+9	+2.3	21
10	Lorient	13	6	3	4	+4	+2.4	21
11	Nice	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.6	20
12	Nantes	12	4	5	3	+1	+1.1	17
13	Clermont	13	4	3	6	-10	-2.0	15
14	Montpellier	13	4	2	7	-5	-3.4	14
15	Auxerre	12	3	4	5	-9	+2.1	13
16	Strasbourg	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.3	12
17	Troyes	13	1	8	4	-6	-5.3	11
18	Brest	12	2	5	5	-7	-0.7	11
19	Ajaccio	12	3	1	8	-10	+2.0	10
20	Angers	13	1	2	10	-14	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	12	9	2	1	+16	+1.3	29
2	Paris SG	13	9	1	3	+22	+2.2	28
3	Monaco	13	8	4	1	+12	+4.1	28
4	Nice	13	6	4	3	+6	+1.9	22
5	Lille	13	5	3	5	+6	+2.0	18
6	Lorient	12	5	3	4	-2	-3.4	18
7	Lens	13	3	8	2	+3	+3.7	17
8	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+2	-1.1	17
9	Clermont	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.5	16
10	Reims	13	2	9	2	-1	+0.9	15
11	Rennes	12	3	4	5	-3	-1.7	13
12	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	+0.4	13
13	Nantes	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.7	11
14	Ajaccio	13	3	2	8	-16	-1.0	11
15	Strasbourg	12	2	4	6	-8	-3.5	10
16	Toulouse	12	3	1	8	-9	-2.5	10
17	Brest	13	2	3	8	-9	-4.6	9
18	Troyes	13	3	0	10	-15	-5.1	9
19	Auxerre	14	2	3	9	-17	+0.0	9
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-18	-1.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.