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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Leverkusen

S T T S U

4–1

Full-time

Hertha

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 30%

36%

23%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

64%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

59%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,04 xG 1,05

62% Possession 38%

16 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 11. · Hertha 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	14	7	2	+44	+6.0	49
2	Dortmund	23	16	1	6	+19	+5.6	49
3	Union Berlin	23	13	5	5	+8	+0.4	44
4	RB Leipzig	23	12	6	5	+17	+5.6	42
5	Freiburg	23	12	6	5	+3	-1.9	42
6	Ein Frankfurt	22	11	5	6	+12	-2.1	38
7	Mainz	23	10	5	8	+4	+1.3	35
8	Wolfsburg	22	9	6	7	+11	+2.5	33
9	M'gladbach	23	8	6	9	-1	-2.2	30
10	Werder Bremen	23	9	3	11	-8	-4.1	30
11	Leverkusen	22	8	4	10	+0	+5.6	28
12	FC Koln	23	6	9	8	-4	+1.3	27
13	Augsburg	23	8	3	12	-11	-2.1	27
14	Hertha	22	5	5	12	-13	-4.5	20
15	Stuttgart	23	4	7	12	-12	-1.0	19
16	Hoffenheim	23	5	4	14	-13	-5.3	19
17	Schalke 04	23	4	7	12	-24	-1.1	19
18	Bochum	23	6	1	16	-32	-3.8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	9	1	1	+19	+3.2	28
2	RB Leipzig	11	8	2	1	+15	-0.6	26
3	Bayern Munich	11	7	4	0	+26	+8.2	25
4	Union Berlin	11	7	4	0	+11	+1.6	25
5	Freiburg	11	7	3	1	+10	+1.4	24
6	M'gladbach	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.5	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	1	3	+13	+2.3	22
8	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+8	+2.2	19
9	FC Koln	11	5	3	3	+9	+3.6	18
10	Augsburg	12	5	2	5	-4	+0.1	17
11	Werder Bremen	12	5	1	6	+2	-0.2	16
12	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-1	-1.1	16
13	Bochum	11	5	1	5	-4	+1.6	16
14	Wolfsburg	10	4	3	3	+6	+1.4	15
15	Stuttgart	12	4	3	5	+1	+1.2	15
16	Leverkusen	11	4	2	5	+5	+2.5	14
17	Schalke 04	12	3	3	6	-14	-0.7	12
18	Hoffenheim	12	3	2	7	-7	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	7	3	2	+18	-2.2	24
2	Dortmund	12	7	0	5	+0	+2.3	21
3	Union Berlin	12	6	1	5	-3	-1.2	19
4	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+5	+1.1	18
5	Freiburg	12	5	3	4	-7	-3.4	18
6	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	+2	+6.2	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	4	4	3	-1	-4.4	16
8	Mainz	11	5	1	5	-4	-0.9	16
9	Leverkusen	11	4	2	5	-5	+3.1	14
10	Werder Bremen	11	4	2	5	-10	-3.9	14
11	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.2	10
12	FC Koln	12	1	6	5	-13	-2.3	9
13	Hoffenheim	11	2	2	7	-6	-5.0	8
14	Schalke 04	11	1	4	6	-10	-0.4	7
15	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-11	-3.8	7
16	Hertha	10	1	1	8	-12	-3.4	4
17	Stuttgart	11	0	4	7	-13	-2.2	4
18	Bochum	12	1	0	11	-28	-5.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.