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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Ath Madrid

T S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Valencia

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 54%

65%

43%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

65%

48%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

48%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,38 xG 0,53

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 5. · Valencia 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	22	17	4	1	+27	+9.4	55
2	Real Madrid	21	17	3	1	+31	+18.5	54
3	Barcelona	21	13	5	3	+14	+25.9	44
4	Ath Bilbao	22	12	6	4	+17	+15.7	42
5	Ath Madrid	20	13	2	5	+17	+11.1	41
6	Sociedad	22	9	9	4	+11	+1.9	36
7	Betis	22	8	10	4	+1	-2.8	34
8	Valencia	21	9	5	7	+3	+0.6	32
9	Las Palmas	22	9	4	9	+3	-14.6	31
10	Getafe	20	6	8	6	-2	-4.0	26
11	Alaves	22	7	5	10	-5	+2.9	26
12	Osasuna	21	7	5	9	-6	-3.7	26
13	Vallecano	21	5	9	7	-8	-2.8	24
14	Villarreal	22	6	5	11	-12	-4.8	23
15	Mallorca	22	3	11	8	-7	-3.2	20
16	Sevilla	22	3	8	11	-9	-9.7	17
17	Celta	22	3	8	11	-11	-3.0	17
18	Cadiz	22	2	10	10	-16	-14.7	16
19	Granada	21	2	5	14	-20	-12.7	11
20	Almeria	22	0	6	16	-28	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	1	0	+19	+14.8	28
2	Girona	11	9	1	1	+16	+5.8	28
3	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+12	+10.8	28
4	Ath Bilbao	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.4	26
5	Barcelona	11	8	0	3	+8	+12.3	24
6	Betis	11	6	4	1	+7	+5.9	22
7	Valencia	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
8	Sociedad	11	5	5	1	+7	+0.7	20
9	Las Palmas	11	5	3	3	+5	-5.6	18
10	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+3	+0.0	18
11	Alaves	10	5	1	4	+0	+6.7	16
12	Osasuna	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.1	15
13	Mallorca	11	2	7	2	+0	+0.6	13
14	Cadiz	11	2	6	3	-4	+1.5	12
15	Sevilla	12	2	5	5	-3	-2.9	11
16	Villarreal	11	3	2	6	-4	+2.4	11
17	Granada	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.0	10
18	Celta	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.1	10
19	Vallecano	10	1	5	4	-9	-2.7	8
20	Almeria	11	0	5	6	-11	+1.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	11	8	3	0	+11	+3.6	27
2	Real Madrid	11	8	2	1	+12	+3.7	26
3	Barcelona	10	5	5	0	+6	+13.6	20
4	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+4	+1.2	16
5	Ath Bilbao	11	4	4	3	+2	+1.2	16
6	Vallecano	11	4	4	3	+1	-0.2	16
7	Ath Madrid	10	4	1	5	+5	+0.3	13
8	Las Palmas	11	4	1	6	-2	-9.0	13
9	Valencia	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.7	12
10	Betis	11	2	6	3	-6	-8.7	12
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.2	12
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	-4	-3.6	11
13	Alaves	12	2	4	6	-5	-3.9	10
14	Getafe	11	1	5	5	-5	-4.0	8
15	Celta	10	1	4	5	-4	-7.1	7
16	Mallorca	11	1	4	6	-7	-3.8	7
17	Sevilla	10	1	3	6	-6	-6.8	6
18	Cadiz	11	0	4	7	-12	-16.2	4
19	Granada	10	0	1	9	-14	-9.8	1
20	Almeria	11	0	1	10	-17	-10.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.