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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Cardiff

S U U S U

3–0

Full-time

Swansea

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

19%

35%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

35%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,85 xG 0,36

30% Possession 70%

11 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Swansea 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	26	15	8	3	+29	+27.8	53
2	Burnley	27	14	11	2	+22	+4.7	53
3	Sunderland	25	14	8	3	+18	+8.9	50
4	Sheffield United	24	14	6	4	+17	+9.8	48
5	Blackburn	26	12	6	8	+8	+0.9	42
6	Middlesbrough	26	11	8	7	+11	+13.7	41
7	West Brom	26	9	13	4	+11	+4.4	40
8	Watford	26	11	5	10	-1	-3.8	38
9	Bristol City	25	9	10	6	+4	+5.3	37
10	Sheffield Weds	26	10	7	9	-2	-4.5	37
11	Norwich	26	9	9	8	+6	+7.4	36
12	Swansea	26	9	7	10	+0	+1.6	34
13	QPR	26	7	11	8	-5	-6.7	32
14	Millwall	25	7	9	9	+1	+5.9	30
15	Preston	26	6	12	8	-6	-0.7	30
16	Oxford	26	7	8	11	-12	-14.7	29
17	Coventry	25	7	7	11	-3	+14.2	28
18	Derby	26	7	6	13	-4	-4.1	27
19	Stoke	26	6	9	11	-8	-12.6	27
20	Luton	26	7	4	15	-17	-3.6	25
21	Cardiff	26	5	9	12	-15	-11.4	24
22	Hull	26	5	8	13	-11	-3.8	23
23	Portsmouth	25	5	8	12	-14	-14.0	23
24	Plymouth	26	4	9	13	-29	-24.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	13	10	2	1	+23	+17.8	32
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Watford	13	9	2	2	+9	+2.2	29
4	Sheffield United	11	8	2	1	+11	+9.9	26
5	Blackburn	14	8	2	4	+9	+5.0	26
6	Burnley	13	6	7	0	+11	+3.0	25
7	Norwich	13	6	5	2	+13	+9.8	23
8	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
9	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+5	+7.7	23
10	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
11	Oxford	13	6	4	3	+2	-3.2	22
12	West Brom	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.1	21
13	Luton	13	6	3	4	+2	+3.8	21
14	Derby	12	6	2	4	+8	+3.4	20
15	Swansea	13	5	5	3	+6	+9.0	20
16	Millwall	13	6	2	5	+4	+7.2	20
17	Sheffield Weds	14	5	5	4	+2	+1.1	20
18	QPR	14	5	5	4	+1	+4.0	20
19	Coventry	12	5	3	4	+6	+12.1	18
20	Plymouth	12	4	6	2	+3	-1.3	18
21	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
22	Portsmouth	11	4	4	3	+6	+1.4	16
23	Cardiff	13	4	2	7	-5	-4.6	14
24	Hull	14	2	6	6	-4	+1.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+11	+1.6	28
2	Sheffield United	13	6	4	3	+6	-0.1	22
3	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
4	Sunderland	13	5	5	3	+4	+1.8	20
5	West Brom	14	4	7	3	+4	+0.2	19
6	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+6	+6.0	18
7	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	-4	-5.6	17
8	Blackburn	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.1	16
9	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.1	14
10	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-6	-7.4	14
11	Norwich	13	3	4	6	-7	-2.4	13
12	QPR	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.7	12
13	Hull	12	3	2	7	-7	-5.2	11
14	Millwall	12	1	7	4	-3	-1.3	10
15	Coventry	13	2	4	7	-9	+2.1	10
16	Cardiff	13	1	7	5	-10	-6.7	10
17	Stoke	12	2	3	7	-9	-8.9	9
18	Watford	13	2	3	8	-10	-6.0	9
19	Preston	12	1	5	6	-10	-5.4	8
20	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
21	Oxford	13	1	4	8	-14	-11.5	7
22	Portsmouth	14	1	4	9	-20	-15.4	7
23	Luton	13	1	1	11	-19	-7.4	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.