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Championship

Referee: A Herczeg

Derby

S T T T U

0–2

Full-time

Watford

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 35%

27%

42%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

46%

65%

Both score Ø 62%

58%

65%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,25 xG 1,82

56% Possession 44%

15 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	26	15	8	3	+29	+27.8	53
2	Burnley	27	14	11	2	+22	+4.7	53
3	Sunderland	25	14	8	3	+18	+8.9	50
4	Sheffield United	24	14	6	4	+17	+9.8	48
5	Blackburn	26	12	6	8	+8	+0.9	42
6	Middlesbrough	26	11	8	7	+11	+13.7	41
7	West Brom	26	9	13	4	+11	+4.4	40
8	Watford	26	11	5	10	-1	-3.8	38
9	Bristol City	25	9	10	6	+4	+5.3	37
10	Sheffield Weds	26	10	7	9	-2	-4.5	37
11	Norwich	26	9	9	8	+6	+7.4	36
12	QPR	27	8	11	8	-4	-4.0	35
13	Swansea	27	9	7	11	-3	+1.1	34
14	Millwall	26	7	9	10	+0	+6.0	30
15	Preston	26	6	12	8	-6	-0.7	30
16	Oxford	26	7	8	11	-12	-14.7	29
17	Coventry	25	7	7	11	-3	+14.2	28
18	Derby	26	7	6	13	-4	-4.1	27
19	Stoke	26	6	9	11	-8	-12.6	27
20	Cardiff	27	6	9	12	-12	-10.9	27
21	Hull	27	6	8	13	-10	-3.9	26
22	Luton	26	7	4	15	-17	-3.6	25
23	Portsmouth	25	5	8	12	-14	-14.0	23
24	Plymouth	27	4	9	14	-30	-27.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	13	10	2	1	+23	+17.8	32
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Watford	13	9	2	2	+9	+2.2	29
4	Sheffield United	11	8	2	1	+11	+9.9	26
5	Blackburn	14	8	2	4	+9	+5.0	26
6	Burnley	13	6	7	0	+11	+3.0	25
7	Norwich	13	6	5	2	+13	+9.8	23
8	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
9	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+5	+7.7	23
10	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
11	Oxford	13	6	4	3	+2	-3.2	22
12	West Brom	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.1	21
13	Luton	13	6	3	4	+2	+3.8	21
14	Derby	12	6	2	4	+8	+3.4	20
15	Swansea	13	5	5	3	+6	+9.0	20
16	Millwall	14	6	2	6	+3	+7.3	20
17	Sheffield Weds	14	5	5	4	+2	+1.1	20
18	QPR	14	5	5	4	+1	+4.0	20
19	Coventry	12	5	3	4	+6	+12.1	18
20	Plymouth	13	4	6	3	+2	-4.1	18
21	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
22	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-2	-4.1	17
23	Portsmouth	11	4	4	3	+6	+1.4	16
24	Hull	14	2	6	6	-4	+1.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+11	+1.6	28
2	Sheffield United	13	6	4	3	+6	-0.1	22
3	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
4	Sunderland	13	5	5	3	+4	+1.8	20
5	West Brom	14	4	7	3	+4	+0.2	19
6	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+6	+6.0	18
7	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	-4	-5.6	17
8	Blackburn	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.1	16
9	QPR	13	3	6	4	-5	-8.0	15
10	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.1	14
11	Hull	13	4	2	7	-6	-5.3	14
12	Swansea	14	4	2	8	-9	-7.9	14
13	Norwich	13	3	4	6	-7	-2.4	13
14	Millwall	12	1	7	4	-3	-1.3	10
15	Coventry	13	2	4	7	-9	+2.1	10
16	Cardiff	13	1	7	5	-10	-6.7	10
17	Stoke	12	2	3	7	-9	-8.9	9
18	Watford	13	2	3	8	-10	-6.0	9
19	Preston	12	1	5	6	-10	-5.4	8
20	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
21	Oxford	13	1	4	8	-14	-11.5	7
22	Portsmouth	14	1	4	9	-20	-15.4	7
23	Luton	13	1	1	11	-19	-7.4	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.