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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Stuttgart

S S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Freiburg

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,5

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

47%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

Both score Ø 65%

71%

59%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,03 xG 0,26

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 5. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	13	3	1	+40	+31.5	42
2	Leverkusen	17	11	5	1	+18	+14.0	38
3	Ein Frankfurt	18	11	3	4	+18	+8.3	36
4	RB Leipzig	17	9	3	5	+5	-3.7	30
5	Stuttgart	17	8	5	4	+6	+9.8	29
6	Mainz	17	8	4	5	+9	-0.5	28
7	Wolfsburg	17	8	3	6	+9	-1.3	27
8	Freiburg	17	8	3	6	-5	+0.3	27
9	Werder Bremen	17	7	5	5	-1	-0.0	26
10	Dortmund	18	7	4	7	+1	+2.6	25
11	M'gladbach	17	7	3	7	+0	-4.6	24
12	Augsburg	17	5	4	8	-14	-6.5	19
13	Union Berlin	17	4	5	8	-9	-4.8	17
14	St Pauli	17	4	2	11	-9	-6.2	14
15	Heidenheim	17	4	2	11	-13	-4.3	14
16	Hoffenheim	17	3	5	9	-14	-9.3	14
17	Holstein Kiel	17	3	2	12	-18	-10.1	11
18	Bochum	17	2	3	12	-23	-15.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+23	+17.5	22
2	Ein Frankfurt	9	6	2	1	+13	+9.8	20
3	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
4	Leverkusen	9	6	2	1	+10	+10.6	20
5	Freiburg	8	6	1	1	+6	+4.1	19
6	Stuttgart	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.1	17
7	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.8	17
8	M'gladbach	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.8	16
9	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+2	+3.0	14
10	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.4	14
11	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.5	12
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	+0	-0.9	11
13	Werder Bremen	8	2	4	2	-2	-0.9	10
14	Hoffenheim	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.0	10
15	Holstein Kiel	9	3	0	6	-9	-5.5	9
16	Bochum	8	2	2	4	-7	-3.4	8
17	Heidenheim	8	2	1	5	-6	-0.0	7
18	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-7	-0.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	2	1	+17	+14.0	20
2	Leverkusen	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.4	18
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	1	2	+9	-0.4	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+5	-1.5	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	5	1	3	+1	+0.9	16
6	Mainz	8	4	2	2	+7	-3.5	14
7	RB Leipzig	9	4	1	4	-1	-6.6	13
8	Stuttgart	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.3	12
9	St Pauli	9	3	0	6	-2	-6.2	9
10	M'gladbach	8	2	2	4	-6	-5.4	8
11	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-11	-3.8	8
12	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.2	7
13	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.3	5
14	Dortmund	9	1	2	6	-10	-3.7	5
15	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-15	-9.9	5
16	Hoffenheim	8	0	4	4	-10	-9.3	4
17	Holstein Kiel	8	0	2	6	-9	-4.6	2
18	Bochum	9	0	1	8	-16	-11.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.