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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Nott'm Forest

U T T U U

1–0

Full-time

Man City

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 52%

52%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

52%

70%

Both score Ø 54%

44%

63%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,73 xG 0,86

31% Possession 69%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 3. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	28	20	7	1	+40	+37.1	67
2	Arsenal	27	15	9	3	+28	+20.2	54
3	Nott'm Forest	27	14	6	7	+11	+1.9	48
4	Man City	27	14	5	8	+16	+12.4	47
5	Chelsea	27	13	7	7	+16	+15.6	46
6	Newcastle	27	13	5	9	+8	+9.9	44
7	Bournemouth	27	12	7	8	+13	+12.8	43
8	Brighton	27	11	10	6	+5	+1.9	43
9	Fulham	27	11	9	7	+4	+7.4	42
10	Aston Villa	28	11	9	8	-5	+1.2	42
11	Brentford	27	11	5	11	+5	+0.8	38
12	Crystal Palace	27	9	9	9	+2	+6.4	36
13	Tottenham	27	10	3	14	+14	-0.4	33
14	Man United	27	9	6	12	-6	-5.9	33
15	West Ham	27	9	6	12	-15	-9.1	33
16	Everton	27	7	11	9	-4	-4.4	32
17	Wolves	27	6	4	17	-19	-12.9	22
18	Ipswich	27	3	8	16	-31	-28.3	17
19	Leicester	27	4	5	18	-36	-27.4	17
20	Southampton	27	2	3	22	-46	-39.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	10	2	1	+18	+16.1	32
2	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+16	+14.5	28
3	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
4	Man City	13	8	2	3	+11	+11.6	26
5	Nott'm Forest	13	7	4	2	+12	+5.7	25
6	Chelsea	13	7	4	2	+11	+12.8	25
7	Brentford	14	7	3	4	+4	+4.2	24
8	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+7	+6.4	23
9	Bournemouth	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
10	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+4	+3.9	21
11	Fulham	14	5	5	4	-1	+2.1	20
12	Man United	14	6	1	7	-4	-0.5	19
13	Everton	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.2	18
14	Tottenham	14	5	2	7	+4	+0.1	17
15	West Ham	14	5	2	7	-9	-6.5	17
16	Crystal Palace	14	3	5	6	-6	+5.1	14
17	Wolves	13	3	1	9	-9	-5.3	10
18	Leicester	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	4	9	-20	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	13	1	1	11	-28	-23.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	14	7	5	2	+12	+5.7	26
3	Nott'm Forest	14	7	2	5	-1	-3.8	23
4	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
5	Bournemouth	14	6	4	4	+6	+4.8	22
6	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+5	+5.3	22
7	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.1	22
8	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+5	+2.8	21
9	Man City	14	6	3	5	+5	+0.9	21
10	Newcastle	14	6	3	5	+1	+3.6	21
11	Tottenham	13	5	1	7	+10	-0.5	16
12	West Ham	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.6	16
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	+1	-3.4	14
14	Man United	13	3	5	5	-2	-5.4	14
15	Everton	13	3	5	5	-7	-5.6	14
16	Aston Villa	13	4	2	7	-12	-10.6	14
17	Wolves	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.6	12
18	Ipswich	13	2	4	7	-11	-17.4	10
19	Leicester	13	2	2	9	-20	-15.5	8
20	Southampton	14	1	2	11	-18	-15.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.