Ligue 1
Referee: Aurelien Petit
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒
Who wins?
Pro
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Le Mans
Brest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
0,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Goal markets
Pro
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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Most likely result
Pro
The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Match stats
Half-time score: 1–1
0,67
xG
2,72
50%
Possession
50%
8
Shots
26
5
Shots on target
7
1
Blocked shots
4
4
Goalkeeper saves
3
1
Corners
10
3
Offside
2
14
Free kicks against
12
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
Match report
Le Mans
Brest
⚽
Romain Del Castillo
0–1
Kamory Doumbia
🟨
Ludovic Ajorque
Half-time 1–1
1–1 Dame Gueye
⚽
Louis Mafouta
Alexandre Lauray
🟨
2–1 Louis Mafouta
⚽
Adil Bourabaa
⚽
Kamory Doumbia
2–2
Erwan Colas
🔁
↦ Louis Mafouta
Lucas Bretelle
🔁
↦ Alexandre Lauray
🔁
Mamady Diambou
↦ Joseph Nonge
🔁
Axel Camblan
↦ Pathé Mboup
🔁
Mama Baldé
↦ Romain Del Castillo
William Harhouz
🔁
↦ Dame Gueye
Billal Brahimi
🔁
↦ Adil Bourabaa
Lucas Calodat
🔁
↦ Yasser Larouci
🔁
Mathis Lainé
↦ Kamory Doumbia
Full-time 2–2
Line-ups
Le Mans
3-5-2
98
Nicolas Kocik
G
Nicolas Kocik
G
15
Noa Boissé
D
Noa Boissé
D
21
Théo Eyoum
D
Théo Eyoum
D
26
Rayan Bamba
D
Rayan Bamba
D
18
Lucas Buades
M
Lucas Buades
M
11
Adil Bourabaa
M
Adil Bourabaa
M
8
Alexandre Lauray
M
Alexandre Lauray
M
9
Antoine Rabillard
M
Antoine Rabillard
M
76
Yasser Larouci
M
Yasser Larouci
M
25
Dame Gueye
F
Dame Gueye
F
14
Louis Mafouta
F
Louis Mafouta
F
Bench (9)
29
Lucas Bretelle
28
Erwan Colas
20
William Harhouz
7
Billal Brahimi
22
Lucas Calodat
1
Ewan Hatfout
16
Raúl Torrente
19
Djibril Sidibé
24
Milan Robin
Coach: Patrick Videira
Brest
4-2-3-1
1
Egil Selvik
G
Egil Selvik
G
70
Kenny Lala
D
Kenny Lala
D
29
Lucas Tousart
D
Lucas Tousart
D
71
Raphaël Le Guen
D
Raphaël Le Guen
D
2
Bradley Locko
D
Bradley Locko
D
13
Joris Chotard
M
Joris Chotard
M
7
Joseph Nonge
M
Joseph Nonge
M
10
Romain Del Castillo
M
Romain Del Castillo
M
23
Kamory Doumbia
M
Kamory Doumbia
M
9
Pathé Mboup
M
Pathé Mboup
M
19
Ludovic Ajorque
F
Ludovic Ajorque
F
Bench (9)
6
Mamady Diambou
11
Axel Camblan
17
Mama Baldé
32
Mathis Lainé
49
Romain Cagnon
20
Luc Zogbé
34
Evan Mailly
4
Gautier Lloris
33
Hamidou Makalou
Coach: Julien Lachuer
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.