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La Liga
Referee: C Soto Grado
Ath Bilbao
S T T U T
1–3
Full-time
Sevilla
S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Sevilla
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,25 xG 0,41
65% Possession 35%
18 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
10 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Alaves 2 1 1 0 +3 +3.3 4
2 Espanol 1 1 0 0 +3 +1.3 3
3 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +2 +0.8 3
4 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.3 3
5 Betis 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.1 3
6 Santander 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.2 1
7 Villarreal 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.2 1
8 La Coruna 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.9 1
9 Elche 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.9 1
10 Vallecano 2 0 1 1 -1 -1.9 1
11 Sociedad 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.1 0
12 Malaga 1 0 0 1 -2 -0.8 0
13 Getafe 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.7 0
14 Levante 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Jan -26 Sevilla – Ath Bilbao 2–1 17. Aug -25 Ath Bilbao – Sevilla 3–2 16. Mar -25 Sevilla – Ath Bilbao 0–1 29. Sep -24 Ath Bilbao – Sevilla 1–1 19. May -24 Ath Bilbao – Sevilla 2–0

Match report

Ath Bilbao Sevilla
Yuri Berchiche 🟥
11′
15′
⚽ Oso 0–1
22′
🟨 Peque Fernández
Gorka Guruzeta 🟨
25′
25′
🟨 Miguel Sierra
39′
🟨 Jon Guridi
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 N. Guillen
↦ Peque
46′
🔁 C. Ejuke
↦ M. Sierra
46′
🔁 I. Romero
↦ J. Guridi
50′
⚽ C. Ejuke 0–2
I. Romero
57′
⚽ I. Romero 0–3
Oso
A. Laporte 🔁
↦ J. Areso
58′
N. Williams 🔁
↦ I. Williams
58′
M. Sannadi 🔁
↦ G. Guruzeta
58′
68′
🔁 J. A. Carmona
↦ A. Sangante
1–3 A. Paredes ⚽
Y. Alvarez
70′
H. Rincon 🔁
↦ A. Paredes
74′
78′
🔁 J. Diaz
↦ Oso
I. Ruiz de Galarreta 🔁
↦ B. Gerenabarrena
83′
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta 🟨
86′
90′
🟨 Isaac Romero
93′
🟨 Nico Guillén
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 U. Simon G
12 J. Areso D
5 Y. Alvarez D
4 A. Paredes D
17 Y. Berchiche D
24 B. Gerenabarrena M
28 P. Canales M
9 I. Williams M
8 O. Sancet M
7 A. Berenguer M
11 G. Guruzeta F
Bench (12)
13 A. Padilla
14 A. Laporte
31 J. Louis-Jean
20 A. Rego
19 A. Boiro
15 H. Rincon
23 R. Navarro
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
18 M. Jauregizar
25 A. Djalo
10 N. Williams
21 M. Sannadi

Coach: Edin Terzic

Sevilla

4-2-3-1
1 O. Vlachodimos G
2 J. Iglesias D
12 A. Sangante D
5 Castrin D
17 G. Suazo D
6 L. Agoume M
18 J. Guridi M
30 M. Sierra M
10 Peque M
19 Oso M
9 R. Ure F
Bench (12)
13 Fran
33 R. Romero
22 J. A. Carmona
34 I. Munoz
3 J. Diaz
8 G. Kochorashvili
28 M. Bueno
27 N. Guillen
21 C. Ejuke
37 I. Sow
16 I. Romero
26 M. Castillo

Coach: Luis Garcia Plaza

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,70
🔒
U
3,56
🔒
B ✓
5,13
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,20
🔒
U2,5
1,63
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Soto Grado · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.