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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Sp Lisbon

S S T U S

3–1

Full-time

Alverca

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,2

Scored

3,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,12 xG 0,41

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 6. · Alverca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.1	7
2	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+7	+5.0	4
5	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.3	3
10	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
11	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.5	2
12	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
13	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
14	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.8	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.9	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
2	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
4	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
7	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
11	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
13	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
14	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
15	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
16	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-7	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
3	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
4	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
5	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
6	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
10	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
14	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
15	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
16	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
17	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.