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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Toulouse

U S U S S

2–0

Full-time

Brest

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

6,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,28 xG 0,97

47% Possession 53%

6 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 9

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 7. · Brest 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
2	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.9	6
3	Lorient	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.9	3
4	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
6	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
7	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Angers	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.6	3
10	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
11	Rennes	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.2	3
12	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
15	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
17	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
18	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.0	3
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
3	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
4	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
6	Angers	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
7	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
10	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
11	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
12	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
13	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
2	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
3	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
4	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
5	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
6	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
7	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
8	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
9	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
10	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
11	Metz	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
12	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
13	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.