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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

PSV Eindhoven

S T S T S

5–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 70%

86%

54%

Points per game

2,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

68%

61%

Both score Ø 45%

43%

46%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,4

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,67 xG 1,38

59% Possession 41%

18 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	28	24	3	1	+68	+57.6	75
2	Feyenoord	28	20	6	2	+47	+54.6	66
3	Twente	28	17	6	5	+25	+16.6	57
4	AZ Alkmaar	28	15	7	6	+27	+15.8	52
5	Ajax	28	12	9	7	+12	+10.8	45
6	Nijmegen	27	11	9	7	+12	-13.8	42
7	Go Ahead Eagles	27	11	7	9	+6	-4.4	40
8	Utrecht	28	10	9	9	+0	-4.6	39
9	Sparta Rotterdam	29	10	7	12	+1	-6.8	37
10	For Sittard	28	9	8	11	-15	+3.8	35
11	Heerenveen	28	9	6	13	-7	-3.6	33
12	Almere City	28	7	11	10	-17	-14.2	32
13	Heracles	29	9	5	15	-20	-20.8	32
14	Zwolle	28	7	7	14	-19	-14.1	28
15	Waalwijk	28	6	6	16	-19	-10.5	24
16	Excelsior	28	4	10	14	-23	-15.1	22
17	Vitesse	28	4	5	19	-37	-22.0	17
18	Volendam	28	3	7	18	-41	-29.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+29	+29.9	37
2	Twente	14	11	1	2	+14	+13.0	34
3	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+26	+29.2	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+21	+15.5	29
5	Ajax	14	7	5	2	+14	+9.4	26
6	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+14	+2.5	26
7	For Sittard	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.4	25
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	7	3	4	+13	+5.6	24
9	Utrecht	14	6	5	3	+5	+3.1	23
10	Heerenveen	14	6	3	5	+5	+6.6	21
11	Heracles	14	6	3	5	-3	-5.9	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	5	6	-2	+1.9	17
13	Waalwijk	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.9	16
14	Almere City	14	3	6	5	-8	-4.6	15
15	Excelsior	14	2	7	5	-6	-1.5	13
16	Zwolle	14	3	3	8	-14	-0.0	12
17	Vitesse	14	1	5	8	-13	-5.3	8
18	Volendam	14	2	2	10	-25	-10.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	2	1	+39	+27.7	38
2	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+21	+25.4	33
3	Twente	14	6	5	3	+11	+3.6	23
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	5	3	+6	+0.3	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	2	6	+3	-8.7	20
6	Ajax	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.4	19
7	Almere City	14	4	5	5	-9	-9.6	17
8	Nijmegen	14	3	7	4	-2	-16.3	16
9	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-5	-14.1	16
10	Utrecht	14	4	4	6	-5	-7.7	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-7	-10.0	16
12	Heerenveen	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.2	12
13	Heracles	15	3	2	10	-17	-14.9	11
14	For Sittard	14	2	4	8	-23	-10.7	10
15	Excelsior	14	2	3	9	-17	-13.6	9
16	Vitesse	14	3	0	11	-24	-16.6	9
17	Waalwijk	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
18	Volendam	14	1	5	8	-16	-19.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.