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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Mainz

T U T S U

4–0

Full-time

Darmstadt

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Darmstadt

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 9%

11%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

41%

63%

Both score Ø 58%

56%

59%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,68 xG 0,55

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 14

9 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · Darmstadt 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	27	23	4	0	+49	+32.4	73
2	Bayern Munich	27	19	3	5	+45	+50.1	60
3	Stuttgart	27	18	3	6	+29	+31.3	57
4	Dortmund	27	15	8	4	+23	+10.1	53
5	RB Leipzig	27	15	5	7	+28	+23.7	50
6	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	+7	-3.9	42
7	Augsburg	27	9	9	9	+1	-3.6	36
8	Freiburg	27	10	6	11	-9	-1.7	36
9	Hoffenheim	27	9	6	12	-7	-9.3	33
10	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	-8	-8.5	31
11	Heidenheim	27	7	9	11	-9	-20.5	30
12	Union Berlin	27	8	5	14	-17	-7.7	29
13	M'gladbach	27	6	10	11	-7	-4.9	28
14	Wolfsburg	27	7	7	13	-11	-2.5	28
15	Bochum	27	5	11	11	-24	-18.4	26
16	Mainz	27	3	11	13	-24	-6.1	20
17	FC Koln	27	3	10	14	-27	-28.6	19
18	Darmstadt	27	2	8	17	-39	-32.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+30	+24.5	38
2	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+36	+31.4	34
3	Stuttgart	14	10	3	1	+26	+24.1	33
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	3	2	+22	+19.0	30
5	Dortmund	13	8	2	3	+8	+10.6	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	7	1	+10	+5.3	25
7	Augsburg	14	5	6	3	+2	+0.1	21
8	Freiburg	13	5	5	3	+2	+6.8	20
9	Union Berlin	13	6	2	5	-3	-1.1	20
10	M'gladbach	14	5	4	5	+2	+5.7	19
11	Bochum	14	4	7	3	+1	+2.2	19
12	Heidenheim	13	5	4	4	+1	-4.8	19
13	Werder Bremen	14	5	3	6	-1	-0.1	18
14	Wolfsburg	13	4	4	5	+0	-0.6	16
15	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-5	+1.2	13
16	Mainz	13	3	4	6	-5	+5.7	13
17	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-13	-11.0	9
18	Darmstadt	14	1	3	10	-21	-10.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	11	2	0	+19	+7.9	35
2	Dortmund	14	7	6	1	+15	-0.5	27
3	Bayern Munich	13	8	2	3	+9	+18.6	26
4	Stuttgart	13	8	0	5	+3	+7.2	24
5	RB Leipzig	13	6	2	5	+6	+4.7	20
6	Hoffenheim	14	6	2	6	-2	-10.4	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-3	-9.2	17
8	Freiburg	14	5	1	8	-11	-8.4	16
9	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-1	-3.6	15
10	Werder Bremen	14	3	4	7	-7	-8.3	13
11	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.9	12
12	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-10	-15.6	11
13	FC Koln	14	1	7	6	-14	-17.6	10
14	M'gladbach	13	1	6	6	-9	-10.6	9
15	Union Berlin	14	2	3	9	-14	-6.6	9
16	Darmstadt	13	1	5	7	-18	-21.3	8
17	Mainz	14	0	7	7	-19	-11.8	7
18	Bochum	13	1	4	8	-25	-20.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.