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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Aston Villa

T S U S T

3–3

Full-time

Brentford

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 41%

58%

23%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

71%

68%

Both score Ø 68%

68%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,52 xG 1,56

70% Possession 30%

11 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

11 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 4. · Brentford 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	30	21	7	2	+42	+32.4	70
2	Man City	31	21	7	3	+40	+33.7	70
3	Arsenal	30	21	5	4	+48	+37.9	68
4	Aston Villa	31	18	5	8	+17	+7.0	59
5	Tottenham	30	17	6	7	+18	+4.3	57
6	Man United	30	15	3	12	-1	-8.9	48
7	West Ham	31	12	9	10	-5	-12.3	45
8	Newcastle	30	13	5	12	+12	+5.8	44
9	Brighton	30	11	10	9	+5	+5.2	43
10	Chelsea	29	12	7	10	+3	+13.9	43
11	Wolves	30	12	6	12	-4	-10.2	42
12	Bournemouth	30	11	8	11	-9	-1.0	41
13	Fulham	31	11	6	14	-3	-11.7	39
14	Everton	30	8	8	14	-11	+1.3	32
15	Crystal Palace	31	7	9	15	-18	-8.3	30
16	Nott'm Forest	31	7	8	16	-14	-5.9	29
17	Brentford	31	7	7	17	-13	+2.9	28
18	Luton	31	5	7	19	-21	-28.1	22
19	Burnley	31	4	7	20	-34	-25.4	19
20	Sheffield United	30	3	6	21	-52	-32.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+29	+30.8	42
2	Man City	16	11	5	0	+25	+18.6	38
3	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+25	+23.1	38
4	Aston Villa	15	11	1	3	+18	+11.5	34
5	Newcastle	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.3	33
6	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+11	+7.7	33
7	Fulham	15	9	1	5	+14	+2.7	28
8	Brighton	14	7	6	1	+12	+8.1	27
9	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+4	+15.2	25
10	West Ham	16	6	7	3	+3	-3.1	25
11	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
12	Wolves	14	7	3	4	+1	-4.7	24
13	Bournemouth	16	6	5	5	-3	+2.2	23
14	Nott'm Forest	16	5	4	7	+0	+1.0	19
15	Brentford	16	4	6	6	-5	+4.6	18
16	Crystal Palace	15	4	4	7	-3	+1.8	16
17	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
18	Luton	15	3	3	9	-4	-4.1	12
19	Burnley	16	2	3	11	-20	-5.0	9
20	Sheffield United	15	2	3	10	-30	-13.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
2	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+23	+14.8	30
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.5	25
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+7	-3.4	24
6	Man United	16	7	2	7	-2	-11.5	23
7	West Ham	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.2	20
8	Everton	16	5	4	7	-8	-7.6	19
9	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
10	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-5	-5.5	18
11	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
12	Brighton	16	4	4	8	-7	-2.8	16
13	Crystal Palace	16	3	5	8	-15	-10.2	14
14	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-7	-11.5	11
15	Fulham	16	2	5	9	-17	-14.5	11
16	Brentford	15	3	1	11	-8	-1.8	10
17	Burnley	15	2	4	9	-14	-20.5	10
18	Nott'm Forest	15	2	4	9	-14	-6.9	10
19	Luton	16	2	4	10	-17	-24.0	10
20	Sheffield United	15	1	3	11	-22	-19.1	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.