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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

Almere City

T T S U T

1–4

Full-time

Waalwijk

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 19/20 matches

Win Ø 11%

11%

10%

Points per game

0,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

47%

65%

Both score Ø 46%

26%

65%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,1

Conceded

2,1

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,49 xG 2,31

32% Possession 68%

15 Shots 28

5 Shots on target 13

2 Blocked shots 7

9 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almere City 18. · Waalwijk 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	21	16	2	3	+45	+28.0	50
2	Ajax	19	14	3	2	+24	+15.1	45
3	Utrecht	21	12	6	3	+7	+1.9	42
4	Feyenoord	19	10	6	3	+18	+19.3	36
5	Twente	18	10	4	4	+15	+15.7	34
6	Go Ahead Eagles	19	9	4	6	+7	+11.2	31
7	AZ Alkmaar	18	8	4	6	+4	+7.0	28
8	For Sittard	21	7	5	9	-9	-3.8	26
9	NAC Breda	21	8	2	11	-10	-10.6	26
10	Heerenveen	20	7	4	9	-7	-1.5	25
11	Nijmegen	20	7	3	10	+3	+5.1	24
12	Zwolle	21	6	6	9	-6	-16.8	24
13	Willem II	20	6	5	9	-4	-15.1	23
14	Groningen	20	5	6	9	-12	-11.5	21
15	Heracles	21	4	9	8	-13	-13.7	21
16	Sparta Rotterdam	20	3	8	9	-11	-1.0	17
17	Waalwijk	20	2	5	13	-22	-15.7	11
18	Almere City	19	2	4	13	-29	-13.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	9	1	0	+30	+15.8	28
2	Ajax	9	8	1	0	+16	+11.1	25
3	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
4	Go Ahead Eagles	10	6	2	2	+9	+12.0	20
5	Heerenveen	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.6	19
6	NAC Breda	11	6	1	4	+1	-0.9	19
7	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.0	17
8	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	-3	+3.6	17
9	Groningen	10	4	4	2	+5	+0.5	16
10	Zwolle	11	5	1	5	+1	-5.3	16
11	Nijmegen	11	4	3	4	+9	+7.9	15
12	For Sittard	10	5	0	5	-3	+1.9	15
13	Heracles	11	2	7	2	+0	-1.2	13
14	Willem II	10	3	3	4	+3	-4.2	12
15	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	1	4	-1	+5.7	10
16	Waalwijk	10	2	2	6	-7	-6.1	8
17	Almere City	10	2	1	7	-16	-3.5	7
18	Sparta Rotterdam	10	0	5	5	-9	+1.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	11	7	4	0	+10	-1.8	25
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	1	3	+15	+12.1	22
3	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.0	20
4	Feyenoord	10	5	4	1	+11	+8.4	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	3	2	+5	+1.3	18
6	Twente	9	4	1	4	+0	+2.5	13
7	Sparta Rotterdam	10	3	3	4	-2	-2.1	12
8	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	2	4	-2	-0.8	11
9	For Sittard	11	2	5	4	-6	-5.7	11
10	Willem II	10	3	2	5	-7	-10.9	11
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	Zwolle	10	1	5	4	-7	-11.4	8
13	Heracles	10	2	2	6	-13	-12.5	8
14	NAC Breda	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
15	Heerenveen	10	2	0	8	-14	-6.0	6
16	Groningen	10	1	2	7	-17	-12.0	5
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-13	-10.2	3
18	Waalwijk	10	0	3	7	-15	-9.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.