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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Marseille

S S U U T

3–2

Full-time

Lyon

U U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 50%

58%

42%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

63%

53%

Both score Ø 61%

68%

53%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,24 xG 1,75

64% Possession 36%

20 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 2. · Lyon 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	15	5	0	+35	+33.8	50
2	Marseille	19	11	4	4	+17	+4.9	37
3	Monaco	20	11	4	5	+12	+21.9	37
4	Lille	20	9	8	3	+13	+7.7	35
5	Nice	20	9	7	4	+13	+11.5	34
6	Lens	20	9	6	5	+7	+10.1	33
7	Lyon	19	8	6	5	+7	+5.7	30
8	Brest	20	9	1	10	-5	-12.1	28
9	Strasbourg	20	7	6	7	+1	-7.8	27
10	Toulouse	20	7	5	8	-1	+8.4	26
11	Auxerre	20	6	5	9	-6	-11.6	23
12	Angers	20	6	5	9	-7	-5.6	23
13	Reims	20	5	7	8	-3	-8.3	22
14	Nantes	20	4	9	7	-6	-7.1	21
15	Rennes	20	6	2	12	-3	-0.9	20
16	St Etienne	20	5	3	12	-24	-19.4	18
17	Montpellier	20	4	3	13	-26	-16.2	15
18	Le Havre	20	4	2	14	-24	-14.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+19	+17.6	26
2	Monaco	11	7	2	2	+7	+14.0	23
3	Nice	9	6	3	0	+14	+8.3	21
4	Lille	10	6	3	1	+8	+1.0	21
5	Rennes	11	6	1	4	+10	+5.7	19
6	Auxerre	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.6	19
7	Brest	10	6	1	3	+6	-1.8	19
8	Strasbourg	9	5	3	1	+6	-0.1	18
9	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+5	+4.0	17
10	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.1	16
11	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	+1	+5.6	15
12	Lens	10	4	2	4	+0	+6.7	14
13	Marseille	9	3	4	2	+2	+4.4	13
14	Montpellier	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.7	12
15	Angers	10	3	2	5	-5	-5.2	11
16	Nantes	9	2	4	3	-1	+0.1	10
17	Reims	11	2	4	5	-5	-5.1	10
18	Le Havre	10	2	0	8	-16	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+16	+16.2	24
2	Marseille	10	8	0	2	+15	+0.5	24
3	Lens	10	5	4	1	+7	+3.4	19
4	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+5	+8.0	14
5	Lille	10	3	5	2	+5	+6.7	14
6	Lyon	10	3	4	3	+2	+1.7	13
7	Nice	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.1	13
8	Reims	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.2	12
9	Angers	10	3	3	4	-2	-0.4	12
10	Toulouse	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
11	Nantes	11	2	5	4	-5	-7.2	11
12	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-5	-7.7	9
13	Brest	10	3	0	7	-11	-10.3	9
14	Le Havre	10	2	2	6	-8	-5.2	8
15	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-13	-11.0	4
16	Montpellier	9	1	0	8	-16	-11.5	3
17	St Etienne	11	0	2	9	-26	-20.6	2
18	Rennes	9	0	1	8	-13	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.