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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Toulouse

S T S U T

1–1

Full-time

Nice

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

37%

47%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

42%

63%

Both score Ø 58%

42%

74%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,47 xG 1,69

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

20 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Nice 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	15	5	0	+35	+33.8	50
2	Marseille	19	11	4	4	+17	+4.9	37
3	Monaco	20	11	4	5	+12	+21.9	37
4	Lille	20	9	8	3	+13	+7.7	35
5	Nice	19	9	6	4	+13	+11.2	33
6	Lens	20	9	6	5	+7	+10.1	33
7	Lyon	19	8	6	5	+7	+5.7	30
8	Brest	20	9	1	10	-5	-12.1	28
9	Strasbourg	19	7	6	6	+2	-8.1	27
10	Toulouse	19	7	4	8	-1	+8.6	25
11	Auxerre	20	6	5	9	-6	-11.6	23
12	Reims	19	5	7	7	-2	-7.4	22
13	Angers	19	6	4	9	-7	-5.0	22
14	Nantes	19	3	9	7	-7	-8.0	18
15	St Etienne	20	5	3	12	-24	-19.4	18
16	Rennes	19	5	2	12	-4	-0.6	17
17	Montpellier	20	4	3	13	-26	-16.2	15
18	Le Havre	19	4	1	14	-24	-15.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+19	+17.6	26
2	Monaco	11	7	2	2	+7	+14.0	23
3	Nice	9	6	3	0	+14	+8.3	21
4	Lille	10	6	3	1	+8	+1.0	21
5	Auxerre	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.6	19
6	Brest	10	6	1	3	+6	-1.8	19
7	Strasbourg	9	5	3	1	+6	-0.1	18
8	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+5	+4.0	17
9	Rennes	10	5	1	4	+9	+6.0	16
10	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.1	16
11	Toulouse	10	4	2	4	+1	+5.8	14
12	Lens	10	4	2	4	+0	+6.7	14
13	Marseille	9	3	4	2	+2	+4.4	13
14	Montpellier	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.7	12
15	Nantes	9	2	4	3	-1	+0.1	10
16	Reims	10	2	4	4	-4	-4.2	10
17	Angers	9	3	1	5	-5	-4.6	10
18	Le Havre	10	2	0	8	-16	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+16	+16.2	24
2	Marseille	10	8	0	2	+15	+0.5	24
3	Lens	10	5	4	1	+7	+3.4	19
4	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+5	+8.0	14
5	Lille	10	3	5	2	+5	+6.7	14
6	Lyon	10	3	4	3	+2	+1.7	13
7	Reims	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.2	12
8	Nice	10	3	3	4	-1	+2.9	12
9	Angers	10	3	3	4	-2	-0.4	12
10	Toulouse	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
11	Strasbourg	10	2	3	5	-4	-8.0	9
12	Brest	10	3	0	7	-11	-10.3	9
13	Nantes	10	1	5	4	-6	-8.1	8
14	Le Havre	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.8	7
15	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-13	-11.0	4
16	Montpellier	9	1	0	8	-16	-11.5	3
17	St Etienne	11	0	2	9	-26	-20.6	2
18	Rennes	9	0	1	8	-13	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.