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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Estrela

S U T T U

2–3

Full-time

Benfica

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

4,3

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

21%

68%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

42%

58%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,12 xG 1,84

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 16. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	16	2	2	+41	+34.2	50
2	Benfica	19	13	2	4	+29	+23.2	41
3	Porto	19	13	2	4	+27	+21.0	41
4	Sp Braga	19	11	4	4	+15	+14.8	37
5	Santa Clara	20	11	2	7	+2	+8.4	35
6	Casa Pia	20	8	6	6	+1	-5.2	30
7	Guimaraes	20	7	8	5	+5	+6.5	29
8	Estoril	20	7	6	7	-7	-15.0	27
9	Famalicao	20	5	9	6	-2	-6.6	24
10	Moreirense	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.7	23
11	Rio Ave	19	6	5	8	-12	-15.7	23
12	Gil Vicente	20	5	7	8	-7	-6.7	22
13	Arouca	20	6	4	10	-13	-9.9	22
14	Nacional	20	5	4	11	-11	-4.0	19
15	AVS	20	3	9	8	-14	-9.1	18
16	Estrela	19	4	5	10	-14	-11.4	17
17	Farense	20	3	6	11	-15	-15.4	15
18	Boavista	20	2	6	12	-21	-9.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+23	+21.8	28
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
3	Sp Lisbon	10	9	0	1	+18	+14.2	27
4	Santa Clara	11	7	1	3	+2	+11.1	22
5	Guimaraes	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
6	Gil Vicente	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.4	16
7	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
8	Moreirense	9	4	4	1	+2	-1.5	16
9	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
10	Nacional	10	5	1	4	-2	-2.0	16
11	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+6	+11.7	15
12	Estoril	10	4	3	3	-2	-6.1	15
13	Estrela	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.4	14
14	AVS	10	3	4	3	-4	-5.6	13
15	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.3	11
16	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
17	Farense	9	2	1	6	-8	-4.5	7
18	Boavista	10	0	3	7	-13	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.1	22
3	Benfica	9	4	2	3	+3	+5.9	14
4	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-3	-5.8	14
5	Porto	9	4	1	4	+4	-0.8	13
6	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+0	-2.7	13
8	Estoril	10	3	3	4	-5	-8.9	12
9	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.2	11
10	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-1	+1.6	10
11	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-8	-5.8	9
12	Farense	11	1	5	5	-7	-10.9	8
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-6	+2.2	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Gil Vicente	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.1	6
16	AVS	10	0	5	5	-10	-3.5	5
17	Nacional	10	0	3	7	-9	-2.0	3
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.